Amedspor vs Trabzonspor prediction & probabilities (2026-08-31)

By /

Amedspor vs Trabzonspor: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 31 Aug 2026

Süper Lig
Amedspor

WL

Full time2-1Mon, 31 Aug 202619:30UK
Trabzonspor

DWLDW

Model’s top convictions

78%

Over 1.5 goals

75%

Draw or Trabzonspor

57%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time11 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Amedspor 2-1 Trabzonspor
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
11 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Trabzonspor at 50.2%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 53.6% and it landed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 77.9% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 68.7% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 55.7% and it landed. We called Yes at 67.7% and it landed. We called Yes at 79.6% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 52.5% and it landed (7 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 60.2% and it landed (8 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 53.5% and it landed (25 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 61.8% and it landed (12 shots on target). We called No at 85.7% and it landed.

Match data Amedspor Trabzonspor
Goals, 1st half 1 1
Goals, 2nd half 1 0
Shots 17 8
Shots on target 7 5
Corners 2 5
Yellow cards 5 3
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 18 10

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
TrabzonsporWin probability
50.2%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals77.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.29
Draw or Trabzonspor75.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.33
Over 8.5 corners57.3%Good chancePays @ 1.75

Model read

▾

Trabzonspor go into this Süper Lig meeting with Amedspor on 31 August 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 50%. The numbers that frame it: • Bookmakers see it the same way, 51% on Trabzonspor, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. • Totals sit close to the fence: 54% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 56%. • Form guide over the last six: Amedspor W1 D0 L1, Trabzonspor W2 D2 L2. • Amedspor are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.012 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners46.5%@ 2.15
Over 10.5 corners36.5%@ 2.74
Medium risk

Both teams to score55.7%@ 1.80
Over 2.5 goals53.6%@ 1.87
Amedspor or draw49.7%@ 2.01
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.9%@ 8.39
1-2 correct score9.6%@ 10.37
0-1 correct score9.5%@ 10.50

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Amedspor

24.6%-0.7%

Draw

25.1%+1.2%

Trabzonspor

50.2%-0.6%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.012 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.577.8%

Strong chance

Over 2.553.6%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes55.7%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.557.3%

Good chance

Over 9.546.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.536.5%

Toss-up

Over 11.527.7%

Low chance

Most cornersAmedspor51.7%Trabzonspor37.3%

Shots markets

Over 22.565.5%

Strong chance

Over 24.553.5%

Good chance

Over 26.541.6%

Toss-up

Over 28.530.6%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.577.8%2.553.6%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.577.8%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

AmedsporWL
TrabzonsporDWLDW

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

AmedsporTrabzonspor
League position#9 of 18#4 of 18
Record W-D-L1-0-11-1-0
Current streakL1W1
Record, home vs away1-0-00-1-0
Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Amedspor win3.604.07
Draw3.803.98
Trabzonspor win1.861.99
Over 2.5 goals1.701.87
Under 2.5 goals2.102.16

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Amedspor win4.06
Draw3.98
Trabzonspor win1.99
Both teams to score1.79

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.28
Over 2.5 goals1.87
Over 3.5 goals3.19
Amedspor most4.06
Trabzonspor most1.99

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.40
Over 8.5 corners1.68
Over 9.5 corners2.11
Over 10.5 corners2.78
Amedspor most1.93
Trabzonspor most2.67

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.27
Over 3.5 cards1.66
Over 4.5 cards2.45
Over 5.5 cards4.09
Amedspor most2.33
Trabzonspor most2.71

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.36
Over 7.5 SoT1.62
Over 8.5 SoT2.02
Over 9.5 SoT2.66
Amedspor most1.86
Trabzonspor most2.95

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.53
Over 24.5 shots1.87
Over 26.5 shots2.40
Over 28.5 shots3.27
Amedspor most1.65
Trabzonspor most2.97

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.19
Over 22.5 fouls1.37
Over 24.5 fouls1.69
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 73.5% Over 7.5 61.7% Over 8.5 49.4% Over 9.5 37.7%
Most: Amedspor 53.8% Most: Trabzonspor 34.0%
Amedspor Over 4.2 50.2% Trabzonspor Over 4.2 35.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 78.8% Over 3.5 60.2% Over 4.5 40.7%
Most: Amedspor 42.9% Most: Trabzonspor 37.0%
Amedspor Over 1.8 63.9% Trabzonspor Over 1.8 59.8%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Amedspor clean sheet 18.3%
Trabzonspor clean sheet 32.2%
Amedspor win to nil 11.8%
Trabzonspor win to nil 25.7%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 24.6% draw 25.1% away 50.2%
double_chance
1X 49.8% 12 74.9% X2 75.4%
dnb
home 32.9% away 67.1%
btts
yes 55.7% no 44.3%
clean_sheet
home 18.3% away 32.5%
win_to_nil
home 11.8% away 26.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 14.9% home_by_2 6.8% home_by_3plus 2.9%
away_by_1 22.8% away_by_2 15.5% away_by_3plus 12.0%
correct_score
0-0 6.5% 0-1 9.5% 0-2 8.6%
0-3 4.9% 0-4 2.1% 0-5 0.7%
1-0 6.1% 1-1 11.9% 1-2 9.6%
1-3 5.5% 1-4 2.3% 1-5 0.8%
2-0 3.8% 2-1 6.4% 2-2 5.4%
2-3 3.1% 2-4 1.3% 2-5 0.4%
3-0 1.4% 3-1 2.4% 3-2 2.0%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 0.4% 4-1 0.7% 4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.9%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.5% under_0.5 6.5% over_1.5 77.9%
under_1.5 22.2% over_2.5 53.6% under_2.5 46.4%
over_3.5 31.3% under_3.5 68.7% over_4.5 15.6%
under_4.5 84.4% over_5.5 6.7% under_5.5 93.3%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 67.5% under_0.5 32.5% over_1.5 31.0%
under_1.5 69.0% over_2.5 10.5% under_2.5 89.5%
team_away
over_0.5 81.7% under_0.5 18.3% over_1.5 50.6%
under_1.5 49.4% over_2.5 24.2% under_2.5 75.8%
most
home 24.6% draw 25.1% away 50.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 2.9% away_+2.5 97.1% home_-1.5 9.8%
away_+1.5 90.3% home_-0.5 24.6% away_+0.5 75.4%
home_+0.5 49.8% away_-0.5 50.2% home_+1.5 72.5%
away_-1.5 27.5% home_+2.5 88.1% away_-2.5 12.0%
total_exact
exact_0 6.5% exact_1 15.6% exact_2 24.3%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 15.7% exact_5 8.9%
exact_6 4.2% exact_7plus 2.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 26.4% draw 43.4% away 30.2%
total
over_0.5 67.7% under_0.5 32.3% over_1.5 31.2%
under_1.5 68.8% over_2.5 10.6% under_2.5 89.4%
btts
yes 18.6% no 81.4%
total_exact
exact_0 32.3% exact_1 36.5% exact_2 20.6%
exact_3 7.8% exact_4plus 2.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 34.6% draw 35.4% away 30.0%
total
over_0.5 79.6% under_0.5 20.4% over_1.5 47.2%
under_1.5 52.8% over_2.5 21.4% under_2.5 78.6%
btts
yes 30.0% no 70.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 19.9% H/D 4.6% H/A 2.0%
D/H 15.0% D/D 15.4% D/A 13.0%
A/H 2.8% A/D 5.7% A/A 21.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 71.4% under_7.5 28.6% over_8.5 59.6%
under_8.5 40.4% over_9.5 47.5% under_9.5 52.5%
over_10.5 36.0% under_10.5 64.0% over_11.5 26.0%
under_11.5 74.0% over_12.5 17.9% under_12.5 82.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 70.8% under_3.5 29.2% over_4.5 55.2%
under_4.5 44.8% over_5.5 40.0% under_5.5 60.0%
team_away
over_3.5 61.0% under_3.5 39.0% over_4.5 44.1%
under_4.5 55.9% over_5.5 29.4% under_5.5 70.6%
most
home 51.9% draw 10.7% away 37.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.2% away_+3.5 77.9% home_-1.5 41.0%
away_+1.5 59.0% home_-0.5 51.9% away_+0.5 48.1%
home_+0.5 62.6% away_-0.5 37.4% home_+1.5 72.4%
away_-1.5 27.6% home_+3.5 87.3% away_-3.5 12.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 65.5% under_22.5 34.5% over_24.5 53.5%
under_24.5 46.5% over_26.5 41.6% under_26.5 58.4%
over_28.5 30.6% under_28.5 69.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 73.8% under_10.5 26.3% over_12.5 58.2%
under_12.5 41.8% over_14.5 42.3% under_14.5 57.8%
team_away
over_10.5 56.3% under_10.5 43.7% over_12.5 38.7%
under_12.5 61.3% over_14.5 24.2% under_14.5 75.8%
most
home 60.6% draw 5.8% away 33.7%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.4% away_+4.5 63.6% home_-2.5 48.4%
away_+2.5 51.6% home_-0.5 60.6% away_+0.5 39.5%
home_+0.5 66.3% away_-0.5 33.7% home_+2.5 76.7%
away_-2.5 23.3% home_+4.5 85.0% away_-4.5 15.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 73.5% under_6.5 26.5% over_7.5 61.8%
under_7.5 38.3% over_8.5 49.4% under_8.5 50.6%
over_9.5 37.7% under_9.5 62.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 67.0% under_3.5 33.0% over_4.5 50.2%
under_4.5 49.8% over_5.5 34.7% under_5.5 65.3%
team_away
over_3.5 53.5% under_3.5 46.5% over_4.5 35.8%
under_4.5 64.2% over_5.5 21.9% under_5.5 78.1%
most
home 53.8% draw 12.2% away 34.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 29.8% away_+2.5 70.2% home_-0.5 53.8%
away_+0.5 46.2% home_+0.5 66.1% away_-0.5 34.0%
home_+2.5 85.2% away_-2.5 14.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 78.8% under_2.5 21.2% over_3.5 60.2%
under_3.5 39.8% over_4.5 40.7% under_4.5 59.3%
over_5.5 24.5% under_5.5 75.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 63.8% under_1.5 36.2% over_2.5 37.0%
under_2.5 63.0%
team_away
over_1.5 59.8% under_1.5 40.2% over_2.5 32.7%
under_2.5 67.3%
most
home 42.9% draw 20.1% away 37.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 24.7% away_+1.5 75.3% home_-0.5 42.9%
away_+0.5 57.1% home_+0.5 63.1% away_-0.5 37.0%
home_+1.5 79.9% away_-1.5 20.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 84.2% under_20.5 15.8% over_22.5 72.9%
under_22.5 27.1% over_24.5 59.1% under_24.5 40.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 84.0% under_9.5 16.0% over_11.5 66.9%
under_11.5 33.1% over_13.5 46.6% under_13.5 53.4%
team_away
over_9.5 78.6% under_9.5 21.3% over_11.5 59.2%
under_11.5 40.8% over_13.5 38.4% under_13.5 61.6%
most
home 52.2% draw 7.3% away 40.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 30.8% away_+3.5 69.2% home_-0.5 52.2%
away_+0.5 47.9% home_+2.5 72.9% away_-2.5 27.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 14.4% no 85.7%
home
yes 6.9% no 93.1%
away
yes 8.0% no 92.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Amedspor predictions · Trabzonspor predictions · Süper Lig

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

Süper LigAmedsporTrabzonsporTrack record