Besiktas vs Corum prediction & probabilities (2026-08-31)

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Besiktas vs Corum: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 31 Aug 2026

Süper Lig
Besiktas

WLDWL

Full time6-2Mon, 31 Aug 202619:30UK
Corum

DL

Model’s top convictions

88%

Besiktas or draw

80%

Over 1.5 goals

57%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time8 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Besiktas 6-2 Corum
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
9 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Besiktas at 67.7%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 56.6% and it landed (8 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 79.8% and it landed (8 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 65.8% and it missed (8 goals). We called No at 50.7% and it missed. We called Yes at 69.7% and it landed. We called Yes at 77.3% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 52.2% and it missed (14 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 65.1% and it landed (5 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 57.1% and it landed (29 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 68.9% and it landed (10 shots on target). We called No at 69.1% and it landed.

Match data Besiktas Corum
Goals, 1st half 2 0
Goals, 2nd half 4 2
Shots 18 11
Shots on target 7 3
Corners 8 6
Yellow cards 2 3
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 9 11

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
BesiktasWin probability
67.7%
Top 3 convictions

Besiktas or draw87.6%High probabilityPays @ 1.14
Over 1.5 goals79.8%High probabilityPays @ 1.25
Over 8.5 corners57.5%Good chancePays @ 1.74

Model read

▾

The numbers leave little room for romance here: Besiktas at 68% against Corum, Süper Lig, 31 August 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 70%. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 57% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 49%. 3) The run in: Besiktas arrive W2 D2 L2, Corum W0 D1 L1. As a promoted side, Corum carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.021 <= 0.03).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners46.8%@ 2.14
Over 10.5 corners36.8%@ 2.72
Draw or Corum32.3%@ 3.10
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals56.6%@ 1.77
Not both teams to score50.7%@ 1.97
Random finds

2-0 correct score12.0%@ 8.33
1-0 correct score10.8%@ 9.29
2-1 correct score9.7%@ 10.33

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Besiktas

67.7%-2.2%

Draw

19.9%+2.1%

Corum

12.4%+0.1%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.021 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.579.8%

High probability

Over 2.556.6%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes49.3%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.557.5%

Good chance

Over 9.546.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.536.8%

Toss-up

Over 11.528.0%

Low chance

Most cornersBesiktas57.9%Corum31.5%

Shots markets

Over 22.568.7%

Strong chance

Over 24.557.1%

Good chance

Over 26.545.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.533.6%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.579.8%2.556.6%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.579.8%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

BesiktasWLDWL
CorumDL

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

BesiktasCorum
League position#12 of 18#15 of 18
Record W-D-L1-0-10-1-1
Current streakL1L1
Record, home vs away1-0-00-1-0
Red cards this season01

Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Besiktas win1.371.48
Draw5.005.03
Corum win7.008.06
Over 2.5 goals1.831.77
Under 2.5 goals1.982.30

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Besiktas win1.48
Draw5.02
Corum win8.06
Both teams to score2.03

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.25
Over 2.5 goals1.77
Over 3.5 goals2.92
Besiktas most1.48
Corum most8.06

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.40
Over 8.5 corners1.67
Over 9.5 corners2.09
Over 10.5 corners2.76
Besiktas most1.72
Corum most3.17

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.22
Over 3.5 cards1.54
Over 4.5 cards2.17
Over 5.5 cards3.45
Besiktas most3.15
Corum most2.03

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.26
Over 7.5 SoT1.45
Over 8.5 SoT1.75
Over 9.5 SoT2.19
Besiktas most1.46
Corum most4.68

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.46
Over 24.5 shots1.75
Over 26.5 shots2.22
Over 28.5 shots2.97
Besiktas most1.43
Corum most4.01

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.19
Over 22.5 fouls1.38
Over 24.5 fouls1.71
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 79.3% Over 7.5 68.9% Over 8.5 57.3% Over 9.5 45.6%
Most: Besiktas 68.7% Most: Corum 21.4%
Besiktas Over 4.2 65.1% Corum Over 4.2 29.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 82.2% Over 3.5 65.1% Over 4.5 46.0%
Most: Besiktas 31.8% Most: Corum 49.2%
Besiktas Over 1.8 59.2% Corum Over 1.8 70.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Besiktas clean sheet 43.6%
Corum clean sheet 11.7%
Besiktas win to nil 37.9%
Corum win to nil 6.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 67.7% draw 19.9% away 12.4%
double_chance
1X 87.6% 12 80.1% X2 32.4%
dnb
home 84.5% away 15.5%
btts
yes 49.3% no 50.7%
clean_sheet
home 44.6% away 11.7%
win_to_nil
home 38.9% away 6.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.7% home_by_2 20.6% home_by_3plus 23.4%
away_by_1 8.6% away_by_2 2.9% away_by_3plus 0.9%
correct_score
0-0 5.7% 0-1 3.8% 0-2 1.7%
0-3 0.5% 0-4 0.1% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 10.8% 1-1 9.5% 1-2 3.7%
1-3 1.0% 1-4 0.2% 1-5 0.0%
2-0 12.0% 2-1 9.7% 2-2 3.9%
2-3 1.1% 2-4 0.2% 2-5 0.0%
3-0 8.6% 3-1 6.9% 3-2 2.8%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 4.6% 4-1 3.7% 4-2 1.5%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 2.0% 5-1 1.6% 5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 2.3%
likeliest_score
h 200.0% a 0.0% p 12.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.3% under_0.5 5.7% over_1.5 79.8%
under_1.5 20.2% over_2.5 56.6% under_2.5 43.4%
over_3.5 34.2% under_3.5 65.8% over_4.5 17.7%
under_4.5 82.3% over_5.5 7.9% under_5.5 92.1%
odd_even
odd 49.0% even 51.0%
team_home
over_0.5 88.3% under_0.5 11.7% over_1.5 63.1%
under_1.5 36.9% over_2.5 36.2% under_2.5 63.8%
team_away
over_0.5 55.4% under_0.5 44.6% over_1.5 19.4%
under_1.5 80.6% over_2.5 4.8% under_2.5 95.2%
most
home 67.7% draw 19.9% away 12.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 23.4% away_+2.5 76.6% home_-1.5 44.0%
away_+1.5 56.0% home_-0.5 67.7% away_+0.5 32.4%
home_+0.5 87.6% away_-0.5 12.4% home_+1.5 96.2%
away_-1.5 3.8% home_+2.5 99.2% away_-2.5 0.9%
total_exact
exact_0 5.7% exact_1 14.5% exact_2 23.2%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 16.5% exact_5 9.8%
exact_6 4.8% exact_7plus 3.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 46.6% draw 39.7% away 13.8%
total
over_0.5 69.7% under_0.5 30.3% over_1.5 33.5%
under_1.5 66.5% over_2.5 11.9% under_2.5 88.1%
btts
yes 16.4% no 83.6%
total_exact
exact_0 30.3% exact_1 36.2% exact_2 21.6%
exact_3 8.6% exact_4plus 3.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 40.4% draw 36.4% away 23.2%
total
over_0.5 77.3% under_0.5 22.7% over_1.5 43.6%
under_1.5 56.4% over_2.5 18.6% under_2.5 81.4%
btts
yes 26.3% no 73.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 38.9% H/D 5.8% H/A 1.9%
D/H 16.0% D/D 14.4% D/A 9.2%
A/H 1.8% A/D 3.2% A/A 8.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 71.6% under_7.5 28.4% over_8.5 59.9%
under_8.5 40.1% over_9.5 47.8% under_9.5 52.2%
over_10.5 36.3% under_10.5 63.7% over_11.5 26.2%
under_11.5 73.8% over_12.5 18.1% under_12.5 81.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.5% under_3.5 25.5% over_4.5 59.7%
under_4.5 40.3% over_5.5 44.7% under_5.5 55.4%
team_away
over_3.5 56.4% under_3.5 43.6% over_4.5 39.3%
under_4.5 60.7% over_5.5 25.1% under_5.5 74.9%
most
home 58.1% draw 10.3% away 31.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.1% away_+3.5 72.9% home_-1.5 47.2%
away_+1.5 52.8% home_-0.5 58.1% away_+0.5 41.9%
home_+0.5 68.4% away_-0.5 31.6% home_+1.5 77.5%
away_-1.5 22.5% home_+3.5 90.3% away_-3.5 9.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 68.7% under_22.5 31.3% over_24.5 57.1%
under_24.5 43.0% over_26.5 45.0% under_26.5 55.0%
over_28.5 33.6% under_28.5 66.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 80.5% under_10.5 19.5% over_12.5 66.9%
under_12.5 33.2% over_14.5 51.5% under_14.5 48.5%
team_away
over_10.5 51.2% under_10.5 48.8% over_12.5 33.7%
under_12.5 66.3% over_14.5 20.1% under_14.5 79.9%
most
home 70.0% draw 5.1% away 24.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 46.5% away_+4.5 53.5% home_-2.5 58.7%
away_+2.5 41.3% home_-0.5 70.0% away_+0.5 30.0%
home_+0.5 75.1% away_-0.5 24.9% home_+2.5 83.7%
away_-2.5 16.3% home_+4.5 90.1% away_-4.5 9.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 79.3% under_6.5 20.7% over_7.5 68.9%
under_7.5 31.1% over_8.5 57.3% under_8.5 42.7%
over_9.5 45.6% under_9.5 54.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 79.0% under_3.5 21.1% over_4.5 65.1%
under_4.5 34.9% over_5.5 50.2% under_5.5 49.8%
team_away
over_3.5 47.2% under_3.5 52.8% over_4.5 29.8%
under_4.5 70.2% over_5.5 17.1% under_5.5 82.9%
most
home 68.7% draw 10.0% away 21.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 45.3% away_+2.5 54.8% home_-0.5 68.7%
away_+0.5 31.3% home_+0.5 78.6% away_-0.5 21.4%
home_+2.5 92.0% away_-2.5 8.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 82.2% under_2.5 17.8% over_3.5 65.1%
under_3.5 34.9% over_4.5 46.0% under_4.5 54.0%
over_5.5 29.0% under_5.5 71.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 59.2% under_1.5 40.8% over_2.5 32.1%
under_2.5 67.9%
team_away
over_1.5 70.6% under_1.5 29.4% over_2.5 44.8%
under_2.5 55.2%
most
home 31.8% draw 19.1% away 49.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 16.7% away_+1.5 83.3% home_-0.5 31.8%
away_+0.5 68.2% home_+0.5 50.8% away_-0.5 49.2%
home_+1.5 69.5% away_-1.5 30.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 83.9% under_20.5 16.1% over_22.5 72.5%
under_22.5 27.5% over_24.5 58.6% under_24.5 41.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 82.3% under_9.5 17.7% over_11.5 64.3%
under_11.5 35.7% over_13.5 43.8% under_13.5 56.2%
team_away
over_9.5 80.1% under_9.5 19.9% over_11.5 61.2%
under_11.5 38.8% over_13.5 40.4% under_13.5 59.6%
most
home 48.7% draw 7.4% away 43.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.8% away_+3.5 72.2% home_-0.5 48.7%
away_+0.5 51.3% home_+2.5 70.0% away_-2.5 30.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 30.9% no 69.1%
home
yes 4.8% no 95.2%
away
yes 27.5% no 72.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Besiktas predictions · Corum predictions · Süper Lig

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Süper LigBesiktasCorumTrack record