Sp Braga vs Guimaraes prediction & probabilities (2026-08-31)

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Sp Braga vs Guimaraes: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 31 Aug 2026

Primeira Liga
Sp Braga

LDDDD

Full time1-0Mon, 31 Aug 202620:15UK
Guimaraes

LLLLW

Model’s top convictions

81%

Sp Braga or draw

78%

Over 1.5 goals

54%

Over 2.5 goals

Full time6 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Sp Braga 1-0 Guimaraes
✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✕ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
7 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Sp Braga at 57.7%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 54.0% and it missed (1 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 78.1% and it missed (1 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 68.3% and it landed (1 goals). We called Yes at 53.1% and it missed. We called Yes at 77.2% and it missed. We called Yes at 77.1% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 57.5% and it landed (4 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 73.8% and it landed (5 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 61.3% and it landed (17 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 54.6% and it missed (6 shots on target). We called No at 87.0% and it landed.

Match data Sp Braga Guimaraes
Goals, 1st half 0 0
Goals, 2nd half 1 0
Shots 9 8
Shots on target 4 2
Corners 2 2
Yellow cards 2 3
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 11 18

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Sp BragaWin probability
57.7%
Top 3 convictions

Sp Braga or draw81.1%High probabilityPays @ 1.23
Over 1.5 goals78.1%High probabilityPays @ 1.28
Over 2.5 goals54.0%Good chancePays @ 1.85

Model read

▾

Sp Braga go into this Primeira Liga meeting with Guimaraes on 31 August 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 58%. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Bookmakers see it the same way, 57% on Sp Braga, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. 2) No strong lean on goals (54% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) The recent series reads 2 wins for Sp Braga, 2 draws and 1 for Guimaraes over 5 games, 2.8 goals on average. Fatigue may matter, with Guimaraes 13 days shorter on recovery than Sp Braga. The run in: Sp Braga arrive W1 D4 L1, Guimaraes W1 D0 L5. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.010 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Draw or Guimaraes42.3%@ 2.36
Over 9.5 corners42.1%@ 2.38
Over 10.5 corners32.9%@ 3.04
Medium risk

Both teams to score53.1%@ 1.88
Over 8.5 corners52.3%@ 1.91
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.1%@ 8.98
1-0 correct score10.3%@ 9.67
2-0 correct score10.1%@ 9.87

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Sp Braga

57.7%+1.0%

Draw

23.4%-2.1%

Guimaraes

18.9%+1.0%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.010 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.578.1%

High probability

Over 2.554.0%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes53.1%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.552.3%

Good chance

Over 9.542.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.532.9%

Toss-up

Over 11.525.0%

Low chance

Most cornersSp Braga50.8%Guimaraes38.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.550.8%

Good chance

Over 24.538.7%

Toss-up

Over 26.528.0%

Low chance

Over 28.519.1%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.578.1%2.554.0%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.578.1%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

Sp BragaLDDDD
GuimaraesLLLLW

Last 5 meetings: Sp Braga 2 · 2 draws · Guimaraes 1 · 2.8 goals/game.

2026-02-21Sp Braga 3-2 Guimaraes
2025-09-20Guimaraes 1-1 Sp Braga
2025-02-16Guimaraes 0-0 Sp Braga
2024-09-15Sp Braga 0-2 Guimaraes
2024-05-11Guimaraes 2-3 Sp Braga

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Sp BragaGuimaraes
League position#13 of 18#9 of 18
Record W-D-L0-1-01-0-2
Current streakD1W1
Record, home vs away·0-0-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.79 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 46% · BTTS in 42%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Sp Braga win1.681.73
Draw3.604.27
Guimaraes win5.005.29
Over 2.5 goals1.981.85
Under 2.5 goals1.882.17

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Sp Braga win1.73
Draw4.27
Guimaraes win5.29
Both teams to score1.88

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.28
Over 2.5 goals1.85
Over 3.5 goals3.15
Sp Braga most1.73
Guimaraes most5.29

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.52
Over 8.5 corners1.85
Over 9.5 corners2.35
Over 10.5 corners3.13
Sp Braga most1.96
Guimaraes most2.59

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.14
Over 3.5 cards1.36
Over 4.5 cards1.78
Over 5.5 cards2.58
Sp Braga most2.68
Guimaraes most2.25

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.48
Over 7.5 SoT1.83
Over 8.5 SoT2.39
Over 9.5 SoT3.31
Sp Braga most1.84
Guimaraes most3.05

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.97
Over 24.5 shots2.58
Over 26.5 shots3.57
Over 28.5 shots5.23
Sp Braga most1.81
Guimaraes most2.60

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.20
Over 22.5 fouls1.37
Over 24.5 fouls1.65
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 67.6% Over 7.5 54.6% Over 8.5 41.8% Over 9.5 30.3%
Most: Sp Braga 54.3% Most: Guimaraes 32.8%
Sp Braga Over 4.2 45.4% Guimaraes Over 4.2 30.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 87.7% Over 3.5 73.8% Over 4.5 56.3%
Most: Sp Braga 37.3% Most: Guimaraes 44.4%
Sp Braga Over 1.8 69.3% Guimaraes Over 1.8 73.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Sp Braga clean sheet 37.3%
Guimaraes clean sheet 15.5%
Sp Braga win to nil 30.9%
Guimaraes win to nil 9.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 57.7% draw 23.4% away 18.9%
double_chance
1X 81.1% 12 76.6% X2 42.3%
dnb
home 75.3% away 24.7%
btts
yes 53.1% no 46.9%
clean_sheet
home 37.7% away 15.6%
win_to_nil
home 31.4% away 9.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.7% home_by_2 17.8% home_by_3plus 16.1%
away_by_1 12.2% away_by_2 4.9% away_by_3plus 1.8%
correct_score
0-0 6.4% 0-1 5.2% 0-2 2.8%
0-3 0.9% 0-4 0.2% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 10.3% 1-1 11.1% 1-2 5.2%
1-3 1.7% 1-4 0.4% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 10.1% 2-1 9.9% 2-2 4.8%
2-3 1.6% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 6.3% 3-1 6.1% 3-2 3.0%
3-3 1.0% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 3.0% 4-1 2.9% 4-2 1.4%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 1.1% 5-1 1.1% 5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.6% under_0.5 6.4% over_1.5 78.1%
under_1.5 21.9% over_2.5 54.0% under_2.5 46.0%
over_3.5 31.8% under_3.5 68.3% over_4.5 15.9%
under_4.5 84.1% over_5.5 6.9% under_5.5 93.1%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 84.4% under_0.5 15.6% over_1.5 55.6%
under_1.5 44.4% over_2.5 28.8% under_2.5 71.2%
team_away
over_0.5 62.3% under_0.5 37.7% over_1.5 25.5%
under_1.5 74.5% over_2.5 7.6% under_2.5 92.4%
most
home 57.7% draw 23.4% away 18.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 16.1% away_+2.5 83.9% home_-1.5 34.0%
away_+1.5 66.0% home_-0.5 57.7% away_+0.5 42.3%
home_+0.5 81.1% away_-0.5 18.9% home_+1.5 93.3%
away_-1.5 6.7% home_+2.5 98.2% away_-2.5 1.8%
total_exact
exact_0 6.4% exact_1 15.5% exact_2 24.1%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 15.8% exact_5 9.0%
exact_6 4.3% exact_7plus 2.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 54.6% draw 33.1% away 12.3%
total
over_0.5 77.2% under_0.5 22.8% over_1.5 43.6%
under_1.5 56.5% over_2.5 18.6% under_2.5 81.4%
btts
yes 20.8% no 79.2%
total_exact
exact_0 22.8% exact_1 33.7% exact_2 24.9%
exact_3 12.3% exact_4plus 6.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 41.3% draw 36.4% away 22.4%
total
over_0.5 77.1% under_0.5 22.9% over_1.5 43.3%
under_1.5 56.7% over_2.5 18.4% under_2.5 81.6%
btts
yes 25.9% no 74.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 46.7% H/D 6.0% H/A 1.8%
D/H 13.7% D/D 12.0% D/A 7.4%
A/H 1.6% A/D 2.9% A/A 7.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 65.9% under_7.5 34.1% over_8.5 54.2%
under_8.5 45.9% over_9.5 42.5% under_9.5 57.5%
over_10.5 32.0% under_10.5 68.0% over_11.5 23.0%
under_11.5 77.0% over_12.5 15.9% under_12.5 84.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 66.0% under_3.5 34.0% over_4.5 50.6%
under_4.5 49.4% over_5.5 36.4% under_5.5 63.6%
team_away
over_3.5 57.3% under_3.5 42.7% over_4.5 41.2%
under_4.5 58.9% over_5.5 27.6% under_5.5 72.4%
most
home 50.9% draw 10.5% away 38.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.1% away_+3.5 77.9% home_-1.5 40.4%
away_+1.5 59.7% home_-0.5 50.9% away_+0.5 49.1%
home_+0.5 61.5% away_-0.5 38.5% home_+1.5 71.2%
away_-1.5 28.8% home_+3.5 86.1% away_-3.5 13.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 50.8% under_22.5 49.2% over_24.5 38.7%
under_24.5 61.3% over_26.5 28.0% under_26.5 72.0%
over_28.5 19.1% under_28.5 80.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 61.1% under_10.5 38.9% over_12.5 44.2%
under_12.5 55.9% over_14.5 29.3% under_14.5 70.8%
team_away
over_10.5 49.2% under_10.5 50.8% over_12.5 32.3%
under_12.5 67.7% over_14.5 19.3% under_14.5 80.7%
most
home 55.4% draw 6.2% away 38.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 30.8% away_+4.5 69.2% home_-2.5 42.7%
away_+2.5 57.3% home_-0.5 55.4% away_+0.5 44.7%
home_+0.5 61.6% away_-0.5 38.4% home_+2.5 73.0%
away_-2.5 27.0% home_+4.5 82.4% away_-4.5 17.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 67.6% under_6.5 32.4% over_7.5 54.6%
under_7.5 45.4% over_8.5 41.8% under_8.5 58.2%
over_9.5 30.3% under_9.5 69.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 63.0% under_3.5 37.0% over_4.5 45.4%
under_4.5 54.6% over_5.5 29.9% under_5.5 70.1%
team_away
over_3.5 47.7% under_3.5 52.3% over_4.5 30.1%
under_4.5 69.9% over_5.5 17.1% under_5.5 82.9%
most
home 54.3% draw 12.9% away 32.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 28.9% away_+2.5 71.1% home_-0.5 54.3%
away_+0.5 45.7% home_+0.5 67.2% away_-0.5 32.8%
home_+2.5 86.8% away_-2.5 13.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 87.7% under_2.5 12.3% over_3.5 73.8%
under_3.5 26.2% over_4.5 56.3% under_4.5 43.7%
over_5.5 38.8% under_5.5 61.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 69.3% under_1.5 30.7% over_2.5 43.2%
under_2.5 56.8%
team_away
over_1.5 73.5% under_1.5 26.5% over_2.5 48.4%
under_2.5 51.6%
most
home 37.4% draw 18.3% away 44.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 21.7% away_+1.5 78.3% home_-0.5 37.4%
away_+0.5 62.6% home_+0.5 55.6% away_-0.5 44.4%
home_+1.5 72.6% away_-1.5 27.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 83.1% under_20.5 16.9% over_22.5 72.9%
under_22.5 27.2% over_24.5 60.7% under_24.5 39.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 80.7% under_9.5 19.3% over_11.5 64.5%
under_11.5 35.5% over_13.5 46.4% under_13.5 53.6%
team_away
over_9.5 78.7% under_9.5 21.3% over_11.5 61.6%
under_11.5 38.4% over_13.5 43.3% under_13.5 56.7%
most
home 48.9% draw 6.5% away 44.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 30.2% away_+3.5 69.9% home_-0.5 48.9%
away_+0.5 51.1% home_+2.5 67.9% away_-2.5 32.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 13.0% no 87.0%
home
yes 8.6% no 91.5%
away
yes 4.9% no 95.1%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Sp Braga predictions · Guimaraes predictions · Primeira Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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