Primeira Liga
Alverca vs 
Estrela Corners
Result
Settled, final score 2-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 44.7%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 68.8% for over 7.5 to 17.7% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.5%. Head to head on corners, Alverca are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 54.4%, with a level count at 10.3%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 68.8% | 31.2% |
| 8.5 corners | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| 9.5 corners | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| 10.5 corners | 34.7% | 65.3% |
| 11.5 corners | 25.3% | 74.7% |
| 12.5 corners | 17.7% | 82.3% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
70.1%
55.1%
40.8%
56.8%
40.5%
26.9%
Corner handicap
| Alverca line | Alverca | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| -0.5 | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| +0.5 | 64.6% | 35.4% |
| +1.5 | 73.9% | 26.1% |
This season (2026/27)
Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Alverca.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Alverca over 4.5 corners sits at 55.1% and Estrela at 40.5%. This season Alverca have averaged 9.0 corners won a game and Estrela 5.0.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Alverca vs Estrela?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 45.5% for Alverca vs Estrela.
Which team will win the corner count in Alverca vs Estrela?
Before kickoff, the model rated Alverca to win the corner count at 54.4%, with a level count at 10.3%.
How many corners do Alverca and Estrela average this season?
Alverca have won 9.0 corners a game this season and Estrela 5.0.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 21,548 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.