Alverca vs Estrela: model prediction
Primeira LigaOver 1.5 goals
Alverca or draw
Draw or Estrela
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Alverca at 43.5%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 54.6% and it missed (4 goals). We called Yes at 50.7% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"When model and market disagree on Alverca, that gap is the story." Our engine prices Alverca at 44% for 15 August 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. The market broadly agrees, pricing Alverca at 45%. No strong lean on goals (45% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. History adds colour: across the last 2 meetings it is 0 wins for Alverca, 2 draws and 0 for Estrela at 3.0 goals per match. Form guide over the last six: Alverca W1 D1 L4, Estrela W0 D3 L3. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.015 <= 0.03).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
43.5%-1.5%
27.9%-0.1%
28.6%+1.5%
value_gap +0.015 <= 0.03
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Alverca 0 · 2 draws · Estrela 0 · 3.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Alverca
Estrela0.0%100.0%
0.0%100.0%
0.0%0.0%
League averages this season: 2.56 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 44% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 65.9% | Over 7.5 | 52.7% | Over 8.5 | 39.8% | Over 9.5 | 28.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Alverca | 51.4% | Most: Estrela | 35.3% | ||||
| Alverca Over 4.2 | 42.1% | Estrela Over 4.2 | 30.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 85.2% | Over 3.5 | 69.7% | Over 4.5 | 51.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Alverca | 37.5% | Most: Estrela | 43.6% | ||
| Alverca Over 1.8 | 66.5% | Estrela Over 1.8 | 70.4% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Alverca clean sheet | 33.5% |
|---|---|
| Estrela clean sheet | 24.6% |
| Alverca win to nil | 24.6% |
| Estrela win to nil | 15.7% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 43.5% | draw | 27.9% | away | 28.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 71.4% | 12 | 72.1% | X2 | 56.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 60.3% | away | 39.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 50.7% | no | 49.3% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 33.6% | away | 24.6% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 24.7% | away | 15.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.4% | home_by_2 | 13.2% | home_by_3plus | 7.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 17.3% | away_by_2 | 8.0% | away_by_3plus | 3.4% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.9% | 0-1 | 8.4% | 0-2 | 4.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.8% | 0-4 | 0.5% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | 1-1 | 13.3% | 1-2 | 6.9% |
| 1-3 | 2.5% | 1-4 | 0.7% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 8.1% | 2-1 | 8.9% | 2-2 | 4.8% |
| 2-3 | 1.8% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 3.8% | 3-1 | 4.1% | 3-2 | 2.3% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.3% | 4-1 | 1.5% | 4-2 | 0.8% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.4% | 5-1 | 0.4% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.1% | under_0.5 | 8.9% | over_1.5 | 71.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 28.3% | over_2.5 | 45.4% | under_2.5 | 54.6% |
| over_3.5 | 24.1% | under_3.5 | 75.9% | over_4.5 | 10.8% |
| under_4.5 | 89.2% | over_5.5 | 4.2% | under_5.5 | 95.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.4% | even | 51.6% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 75.4% | under_0.5 | 24.6% | over_1.5 | 40.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 59.1% | over_2.5 | 16.7% | under_2.5 | 83.3% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 66.4% | under_0.5 | 33.6% | over_1.5 | 29.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.3% | over_2.5 | 9.8% | under_2.5 | 90.2% |
most
| home | 43.5% | draw | 27.9% | away | 28.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 7.9% | away_+2.5 | 92.1% | home_-1.5 | 21.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 78.9% | home_-0.5 | 43.5% | away_+0.5 | 56.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.4% | away_-0.5 | 28.6% | home_+1.5 | 88.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 11.4% | home_+2.5 | 96.6% | away_-2.5 | 3.4% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.9% | exact_1 | 19.4% | exact_2 | 26.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.3% | exact_4 | 13.3% | exact_5 | 6.6% |
| exact_6 | 2.8% | exact_7plus | 1.4% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 28.2% | draw | 45.9% | away | 25.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 64.1% | under_0.5 | 35.9% | over_1.5 | 27.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 72.6% | over_2.5 | 8.5% | under_2.5 | 91.5% |
btts
| yes | 16.1% | no | 83.9% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 35.9% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 18.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 6.4% | exact_4plus | 2.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 40.1% | draw | 36.8% | away | 23.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 76.7% | under_0.5 | 23.3% | over_1.5 | 42.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 57.2% | over_2.5 | 18.1% | under_2.5 | 82.0% |
btts
| yes | 25.8% | no | 74.2% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 22.9% | H/D | 4.0% | H/A | 1.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 18.4% | D/D | 16.9% | D/A | 10.6% |
| A/H | 3.0% | A/D | 5.8% | A/A | 17.1% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 68.8% | under_7.5 | 31.2% | over_8.5 | 57.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 42.8% | over_9.5 | 45.5% | under_9.5 | 54.5% |
| over_10.5 | 34.7% | under_10.5 | 65.3% | over_11.5 | 25.3% |
| under_11.5 | 74.7% | over_12.5 | 17.7% | under_12.5 | 82.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 70.1% | under_3.5 | 29.9% | over_4.5 | 55.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 44.9% | over_5.5 | 40.8% | under_5.5 | 59.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 56.8% | under_3.5 | 43.2% | over_4.5 | 40.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.5% | over_5.5 | 26.9% | under_5.5 | 73.2% |
most
| home | 54.4% | draw | 10.3% | away | 35.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.0% | away_+3.5 | 75.0% | home_-1.5 | 43.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 56.1% | home_-0.5 | 54.4% | away_+0.5 | 45.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.6% | away_-0.5 | 35.4% | home_+1.5 | 73.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 26.1% | home_+3.5 | 87.8% | away_-3.5 | 12.2% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 54.5% | under_22.5 | 45.5% | over_24.5 | 42.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 57.6% | over_26.5 | 31.3% | under_26.5 | 68.8% |
| over_28.5 | 21.8% | under_28.5 | 78.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 65.0% | under_10.5 | 35.0% | over_12.5 | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 51.6% | over_14.5 | 33.1% | under_14.5 | 66.9% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 50.1% | under_10.5 | 49.9% | over_12.5 | 33.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 66.9% | over_14.5 | 19.9% | under_14.5 | 80.1% |
most
| home | 57.7% | draw | 6.0% | away | 36.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 33.3% | away_+4.5 | 66.7% | home_-2.5 | 45.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 54.7% | home_-0.5 | 57.7% | away_+0.5 | 42.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.7% | away_-0.5 | 36.3% | home_+2.5 | 74.7% |
| away_-2.5 | 25.3% | home_+4.5 | 83.6% | away_-4.5 | 16.4% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 65.9% | under_6.5 | 34.1% | over_7.5 | 52.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 47.3% | over_8.5 | 39.8% | under_8.5 | 60.2% |
| over_9.5 | 28.5% | under_9.5 | 71.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 59.9% | under_3.5 | 40.1% | over_4.5 | 42.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 57.9% | over_5.5 | 27.0% | under_5.5 | 73.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 48.5% | under_3.5 | 51.5% | over_4.5 | 30.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 69.2% | over_5.5 | 17.6% | under_5.5 | 82.4% |
most
| home | 51.4% | draw | 13.2% | away | 35.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 26.2% | away_+2.5 | 73.8% | home_-0.5 | 51.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 48.6% | home_+0.5 | 64.6% | away_-0.5 | 35.4% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.3% | away_-2.5 | 14.7% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 85.2% | under_2.5 | 14.8% | over_3.5 | 69.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 30.3% | over_4.5 | 51.3% | under_4.5 | 48.7% |
| over_5.5 | 33.9% | under_5.5 | 66.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 66.6% | under_1.5 | 33.5% | over_2.5 | 40.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 60.0% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 70.4% | under_1.5 | 29.6% | over_2.5 | 44.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 55.5% |
most
| home | 37.5% | draw | 18.8% | away | 43.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 21.4% | away_+1.5 | 78.6% | home_-0.5 | 37.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.5% | home_+0.5 | 56.4% | away_-0.5 | 43.7% |
| home_+1.5 | 73.7% | away_-1.5 | 26.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 86.9% | under_20.5 | 13.1% | over_22.5 | 78.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 22.0% | over_24.5 | 66.9% | under_24.5 | 33.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 83.1% | under_9.5 | 16.9% | over_11.5 | 67.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 32.2% | over_13.5 | 49.9% | under_13.5 | 50.1% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 82.6% | under_9.5 | 17.4% | over_11.5 | 67.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 32.9% | over_13.5 | 49.1% | under_13.5 | 50.9% |
most
| home | 47.3% | draw | 6.5% | away | 46.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 29.0% | away_+3.5 | 71.0% | home_-0.5 | 47.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 52.7% | home_+2.5 | 66.3% | away_-2.5 | 33.8% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 15.5% | no | 84.5% |
|---|
home
| yes | 7.9% | no | 92.1% |
|---|
away
| yes | 8.3% | no | 91.7% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Alverca predictions · Estrela predictions · Primeira Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
Explore this match
Markets