League TwoAccrington vs Colchester Cards
Result
Settled, final score 2-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 57.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 76.4% for over 2.5 to 21.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.0%. On the card count, Colchester are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.7%, with a level count at 20.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 76.4% | 23.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 37.5% | 62.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 21.8% | 78.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
59.6%
32.5%
59.7%
32.6%
Card handicap
| Accrington line | Accrington | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.8% | 78.2% |
| -0.5 | 39.6% | 60.4% |
| +0.5 | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| +1.5 | 78.1% | 21.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 69.5% | 30.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 39.4% | 60.6% |
Recent referees
| Team | Referee | Games | Cards/g | Team cards/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington | A Byrne | 2 | 4.0 | 3.0 |
| Accrington | D Brown | 2 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Accrington | E Duckworth | 2 | 4.0 | 2.5 |
| Colchester | C Breakspear | 2 | 5.5 | 3.0 |
| Colchester | E Bell | 2 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| Colchester | M Coy | 2 | 5.5 | 2.5 |
The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. We never claim who officiates this match: the appointment is not known before kickoff.
This season (2025/26)
2.2Accrington cards per game11.4Accrington fouls per game1.9Colchester cards per game10.8Colchester fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Accrington vs Colchester. It tips Colchester for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
57.0%Over 3.5 cards15.6%Any red card59.6%Accrington over 1.5 cards59.7%Colchester over 1.5 cards54.6%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Accrington over 1.5 cards sits at 59.6% and Colchester at 59.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.6% (Accrington 11.3%, Colchester 5.0%). Accrington’s most frequent referee this season, A Byrne, has averaged 4.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff. This season Accrington have averaged 2.2 cards a game and Colchester 1.9.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Accrington vs Colchester?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 57.0% for Accrington vs Colchester.
Will there be a red card in Accrington vs Colchester?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 15.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Accrington vs Colchester?
Before kickoff, the model rated Colchester to pick up more cards at 39.7%, with a level count at 20.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More League Two, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.