League TwoAccrington vs Colchester Correct Score
Result
Final score 2-2. The model gave that exact scoreline 4.3%.
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 13.8% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Accrington have averaged 1.4 scored and 2.4 conceded, Colchester 1.8 and 0.8 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 39.8% for over 2.5 and 67.1% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.0 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 0-1 | 12.0% |
| 0-0 | 10.9% |
| 1-0 | 10.0% |
| 1-2 | 8.1% |
| 0-2 | 7.8% |
| 2-1 | 6.9% |
| 2-0 | 5.6% |
Score probability grid
| Accrington \ Colchester | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 10% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 6% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | · | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Accrington goals, columns = Colchester. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.8%. Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. Read the heatmap as a map of likelihood, not a prediction of one score.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
46.6%Both Teams to Score39.8%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 39.8% for three or more goals and 67.1% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. Given Colchester favoured at 39.9%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Accrington 2 · 2 draws · Colchester 1 · 2.0 goals/game.
FAQ
What was the score in Accrington vs Colchester?
Accrington vs Colchester finished 2-2. The model's most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 13.8%; it gave the actual 2-2 a 4.3% chance.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
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Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.