League TwoAccrington vs Colchester Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Result
We called Under 2.5 at 60.2% and it missed.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Under 2.5 goals at 60.2%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Accrington have averaged 1.4 scored and 2.4 conceded, Colchester 1.8 and 0.8 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 39.8% for over 2.5 and 67.1% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.0 goals a game. Accrington have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Colchester in 3 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 89.1% | 10.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 67.1% | 32.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 39.8% | 60.2% |
| 3.5 goals | 19.7% | 80.3% |
| 4.5 goals | 8.2% | 91.8% |
| 5.5 goals | 2.9% | 97.1% |
Team goal lines
64.7%
28.0%
8.9%
70.9%
35.0%
12.8%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 26.8% | 73.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 8.2% | 91.8% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 69.9% | 30.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 33.7% | 66.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 12.0% | 87.9% |
This season (2025/26)
1.0Accrington goals scored per game1.3Accrington goals conceded per game37.0%Accrington Over 2.5 rate0.5Accrington 1st-half goals per game1.4Colchester goals scored per game1.1Colchester goals conceded per game34.8%Colchester Over 2.5 rate0.7Colchester 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
46.6%Both Teams to Score39.8%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 39.8% for three or more goals and 67.1% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. With Colchester favoured at 39.9%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Colchester to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Accrington 2 · 2 draws · Colchester 1 · 2.0 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Were there over 2.5 goals in Accrington vs Colchester?
We rated Over 2.5 goals at 39.8%. The match finished with 4 goals (2-2), over 2.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,251 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 41.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.