Accrington vs Colchester: model prediction
League TwoDraw or Colchester
Over 1.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Colchester at 39.9%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 60.2% and it missed (4 goals). We called No at 53.4% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Little between these two in the data. Colchester at 40% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 15 August 2026. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Our number sits above the market's 32% for Colchester. The gap itself is information. 2) This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 40% with both teams to score at 47%. 3) Form guide over the last six: Accrington W0 D2 L4, Colchester W4 D0 L2. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Accrington, 2 draws and 1 for Colchester at 2.0 goals per match. The engine passes on this one (outside trust zone (model prob 0.40, zone (0.45, 0.7))).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
30.4%-9.1%
29.7%+1.3%
39.9%+7.8%
outside trust zone (model prob 0.40, zone (0.45, 0.7))
Goals markets
Strong chance
Toss-up
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Accrington 2 · 2 draws · Colchester 1 · 2.0 goals/game.
Referee history
Most-seen referees this season, real match data. We never claim who officiates this fixture.
Season stats
Season 2025/26, real results only
37.0%34.8%
41.3%50.0%
26.1%23.9%
League averages this season: 2.58 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 48% · BTTS in 53%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 61.0% | Over 7.5 | 47.9% | Over 8.5 | 35.6% | Over 9.5 | 25.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Accrington | 48.3% | Most: Colchester | 38.3% | ||||
| Accrington Over 4.2 | 36.9% | Colchester Over 4.2 | 30.0% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 76.4% | Over 3.5 | 57.0% | Over 4.5 | 37.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Accrington | 39.6% | Most: Colchester | 39.7% | ||
| Accrington Over 1.8 | 59.6% | Colchester Over 1.8 | 59.7% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Accrington clean sheet | 29.1% |
|---|---|
| Colchester clean sheet | 35.2% |
| Accrington win to nil | 18.1% |
| Colchester win to nil | 24.3% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 30.4% | draw | 29.7% | away | 39.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 60.1% | 12 | 70.3% | X2 | 69.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 43.3% | away | 56.8% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 46.6% | no | 53.4% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 29.1% | away | 35.3% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 18.2% | away | 24.4% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 18.5% | home_by_2 | 8.4% | home_by_3plus | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 22.1% | away_by_2 | 11.8% | away_by_3plus | 6.1% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 10.9% | 0-1 | 12.0% | 0-2 | 7.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.2% | 0-4 | 1.0% | 0-5 | 0.3% |
| 1-0 | 10.0% | 1-1 | 13.8% | 1-2 | 8.1% |
| 1-3 | 3.4% | 1-4 | 1.0% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 5.6% | 2-1 | 6.9% | 2-2 | 4.3% |
| 2-3 | 1.8% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 2.0% | 3-1 | 2.4% | 3-2 | 1.5% |
| 3-3 | 0.6% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.5% | 4-1 | 0.6% | 4-2 | 0.4% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.1% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.0% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 89.1% | under_0.5 | 10.9% | over_1.5 | 67.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 32.9% | over_2.5 | 39.8% | under_2.5 | 60.2% |
| over_3.5 | 19.7% | under_3.5 | 80.3% | over_4.5 | 8.2% |
| under_4.5 | 91.8% | over_5.5 | 2.9% | under_5.5 | 97.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.2% | even | 51.8% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 64.7% | under_0.5 | 35.3% | over_1.5 | 28.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 72.0% | over_2.5 | 8.9% | under_2.5 | 91.1% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 70.9% | under_0.5 | 29.1% | over_1.5 | 35.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.0% | over_2.5 | 12.8% | under_2.5 | 87.2% |
most
| home | 30.4% | draw | 29.7% | away | 39.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 3.5% | away_+2.5 | 96.5% | home_-1.5 | 11.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 88.1% | home_-0.5 | 30.4% | away_+0.5 | 69.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 60.1% | away_-0.5 | 39.9% | home_+1.5 | 82.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 17.8% | home_+2.5 | 93.9% | away_-2.5 | 6.1% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 10.9% | exact_1 | 22.0% | exact_2 | 27.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 20.2% | exact_4 | 11.5% | exact_5 | 5.3% |
| exact_6 | 2.0% | exact_7plus | 0.9% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 23.7% | draw | 46.2% | away | 30.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 63.6% | under_0.5 | 36.4% | over_1.5 | 26.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 73.2% | over_2.5 | 8.2% | under_2.5 | 91.8% |
btts
| yes | 15.6% | no | 84.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 36.4% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 18.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 6.3% | exact_4plus | 2.0% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 23.9% | draw | 41.7% | away | 34.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 69.9% | under_0.5 | 30.1% | over_1.5 | 33.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 66.3% | over_2.5 | 12.0% | under_2.5 | 87.9% |
btts
| yes | 20.0% | no | 80.0% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 16.8% | H/D | 4.9% | H/A | 2.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 11.0% | D/D | 19.3% | D/A | 15.9% |
| A/H | 1.3% | A/D | 4.5% | A/A | 24.3% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 72.1% | under_7.5 | 27.9% | over_8.5 | 60.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 39.3% | over_9.5 | 48.8% | under_9.5 | 51.2% |
| over_10.5 | 37.4% | under_10.5 | 62.6% | over_11.5 | 27.4% |
| under_11.5 | 72.6% | over_12.5 | 19.2% | under_12.5 | 80.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 68.5% | under_3.5 | 31.5% | over_4.5 | 52.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 47.6% | over_5.5 | 37.2% | under_5.5 | 62.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 65.5% | under_3.5 | 34.5% | over_4.5 | 49.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.0% | over_5.5 | 33.9% | under_5.5 | 66.1% |
most
| home | 46.8% | draw | 11.0% | away | 42.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 18.4% | away_+3.5 | 81.6% | home_-1.5 | 36.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 63.9% | home_-0.5 | 46.8% | away_+0.5 | 53.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 57.8% | away_-0.5 | 42.2% | home_+1.5 | 68.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 31.8% | home_+3.5 | 84.6% | away_-3.5 | 15.4% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 55.4% | under_22.5 | 44.7% | over_24.5 | 42.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 57.5% | over_26.5 | 30.8% | under_26.5 | 69.2% |
| over_28.5 | 21.0% | under_28.5 | 79.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 65.1% | under_10.5 | 34.9% | over_12.5 | 47.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 52.6% | over_14.5 | 31.3% | under_14.5 | 68.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 52.5% | under_10.5 | 47.5% | over_12.5 | 34.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 65.6% | over_14.5 | 20.2% | under_14.5 | 79.8% |
most
| home | 55.9% | draw | 6.4% | away | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 30.6% | away_+4.5 | 69.4% | home_-2.5 | 42.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 57.2% | home_-0.5 | 55.9% | away_+0.5 | 44.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 62.4% | away_-0.5 | 37.7% | home_+2.5 | 74.0% |
| away_-2.5 | 26.0% | home_+4.5 | 83.5% | away_-4.5 | 16.5% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 61.0% | under_6.5 | 39.0% | over_7.5 | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 52.1% | over_8.5 | 35.6% | under_8.5 | 64.4% |
| over_9.5 | 25.2% | under_9.5 | 74.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 54.2% | under_3.5 | 45.8% | over_4.5 | 36.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 63.1% | over_5.5 | 23.1% | under_5.5 | 76.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 47.0% | under_3.5 | 53.0% | over_4.5 | 30.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 70.0% | over_5.5 | 17.5% | under_5.5 | 82.5% |
most
| home | 48.3% | draw | 13.4% | away | 38.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 23.9% | away_+2.5 | 76.1% | home_-0.5 | 48.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 51.7% | home_+0.5 | 61.7% | away_-0.5 | 38.3% |
| home_+2.5 | 83.3% | away_-2.5 | 16.7% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 76.4% | under_2.5 | 23.6% | over_3.5 | 57.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 43.0% | over_4.5 | 37.5% | under_4.5 | 62.6% |
| over_5.5 | 21.8% | under_5.5 | 78.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 59.6% | under_1.5 | 40.4% | over_2.5 | 32.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 67.5% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 59.7% | under_1.5 | 40.3% | over_2.5 | 32.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 67.4% |
most
| home | 39.6% | draw | 20.7% | away | 39.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 21.8% | away_+1.5 | 78.2% | home_-0.5 | 39.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 60.4% | home_+0.5 | 60.3% | away_-0.5 | 39.7% |
| home_+1.5 | 78.1% | away_-1.5 | 21.9% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 69.5% | under_20.5 | 30.5% | over_22.5 | 54.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 45.4% | over_24.5 | 39.4% | under_24.5 | 60.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 75.5% | under_9.5 | 24.5% | over_11.5 | 55.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 44.8% | over_13.5 | 34.7% | under_13.5 | 65.3% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 65.4% | under_9.5 | 34.6% | over_11.5 | 43.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 56.8% | over_13.5 | 24.1% | under_13.5 | 75.9% |
most
| home | 54.6% | draw | 7.6% | away | 37.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 32.1% | away_+3.5 | 68.0% | home_-0.5 | 54.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 45.4% | home_+2.5 | 75.8% | away_-2.5 | 24.2% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 15.6% | no | 84.4% |
|---|
home
| yes | 11.3% | no | 88.8% |
|---|
away
| yes | 5.0% | no | 95.1% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Accrington predictions · Colchester predictions · League Two
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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