Ath Madrid vs Osasuna prediction & probabilities (2026-09-16)

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Ath Madrid vs Osasuna: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 15 Sep 2026

La Liga
Ath Madrid

WDWLW

Wed, 16 Sep 202618:00UK24°C · Clearing
Osasuna

DWWLL

Model’s top convictions

82%

Ath Madrid or draw

77%

Over 1.5 goals

59%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.10).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Ath MadridWin probability
57.7%
Top 3 convictions

Ath Madrid or draw82.5%High probabilityPays @ 1.21
Over 1.5 goals76.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.31
Over 8.5 corners59.3%Good chancePays @ 1.69

Model read

▾

"58% on Ath Madrid is a measurement, not a promise." Few La Liga fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Ath Madrid carry a 58% win probability against Osasuna on 16 September 2026. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Ath Madrid higher (70%) than our model does. Totals sit close to the fence: 52% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 52%. Form guide over the last six: Ath Madrid W3 D1 L2, Osasuna W2 D1 L3. For shots markets, Julián Álvarez is the obvious watch at 1.3 on target per 90 in recent data. The recent series reads 3 wins for Ath Madrid, 0 draws and 2 for Osasuna over 5 games, 2.4 goals on average. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Draw or Osasuna42.3%@ 2.37
Over 10.5 corners38.1%@ 2.62
Medium risk

Both teams to score52.1%@ 1.92
Over 2.5 goals51.9%@ 1.93
Over 9.5 corners48.4%@ 2.07
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.6%@ 8.65
1-0 correct score10.7%@ 9.32
2-0 correct score10.0%@ 9.97

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Ath Madrid

57.7%-12.5%

Draw

24.7%+5.2%

Osasuna

17.5%+7.2%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.576.6%

Strong chance

Over 2.551.9%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes52.1%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.559.3%

Good chance

Over 9.548.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.538.1%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.0%

Low chance

Most cornersAth Madrid63.1%Osasuna26.8%

Shots markets

Over 22.559.8%

Good chance

Over 24.547.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.534.8%

Toss-up

Over 28.524.3%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Ath Madrid13.8 taken11.8 faced
Osasuna10.7 taken8.3 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Ath Madrid (5 games)

6.6 / 8.2

Osasuna (5 games)

4.6 / 6.0

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.576.6%2.551.9%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.576.6%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10).

Form & head-to-head

Ath MadridWDWLW
OsasunaDWWLL

Last 5 meetings: Ath Madrid 3 · 0 draws · Osasuna 2 · 2.4 goals/game.

2026-05-12Osasuna 1-2 Ath Madrid
2025-10-18Ath Madrid 1-0 Osasuna
2025-05-15Osasuna 2-0 Ath Madrid
2025-01-12Ath Madrid 1-0 Osasuna
2024-05-19Ath Madrid 1-4 Osasuna

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Ath MadridOsasuna
League position#5 of 20#11 of 20
Record W-D-L3-1-12-1-2
Current streakW1L2
Points per game2.001.40
Record, home vs away1-1-01-0-1
Goals scored per game2.001.00
Goals conceded per game1.201.60
1st half goals per game0.600.20
2nd half goals per game1.400.80
Corners won per game4.83.4
Cards per game2.02.4
Fouls per game12.013.0
Red cards this season10
Shots per game14.810.6
Shots faced per game11.48.8
Shots on target per game5.04.6
1st half shots per game6.64.6
2nd half shots per game8.26.0
xG for per game1.231.45
xG against per game1.471.10
Over 2.5 rate

80.0%40.0%

BTTS rate

40.0%40.0%

Clean sheets

40.0%40.0%

Rates this season:Ath MadridOsasuna

League averages this season: 2.98 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 55% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Julián ÁlvarezAth Madrid · key player
To score32.2%

@ 3.11

1+ on target63.3%

@ 1.58

2+ shots57.2%

@ 1.75

Shots/90 2.57SoT/90 1.34Goals/90 0.52
Raul GarcíaOsasuna · key player
To score14.7%

@ 6.80

1+ on target39.7%

@ 2.52

2+ shots28.0%

@ 3.57

Shots/90 3.54SoT/90 1.72Goals/90 0.54
Jonathan Christian DavidAth Madrid · in form
To score29.0%

@ 3.45

1+ on target54.4%

@ 1.84

2+ shots52.8%

@ 1.89

Shots/90 2.43SoT/90 1.08Goals/90 0.47
Ante BudimirOsasuna · in form
To score42.3%

@ 2.36

1+ on target67.3%

@ 1.49

2+ shots76.5%

@ 1.31

Shots/90 3.13SoT/90 1.26Goals/90 0.62
Ademola LookmanAth Madrid · in form
To score30.7%

@ 3.26

1+ on target54.5%

@ 1.83

2+ shots66.5%

@ 1.50

Shots/90 2.99SoT/90 1.03Goals/90 0.48
Kike BarjaOsasuna · in form
To score6.3%

@ 15.87

1+ on target12.3%

@ 8.13

2+ shots4.3%

@ 23.26

Shots/90 1.66SoT/90 0.67Goals/90 0.33

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Ath Madrid win1.381.73
Draw4.754.04
Osasuna win8.505.70
Over 2.5 goals1.731.93
Under 2.5 goals2.102.08

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Ath Madrid win1.80
Draw4.12
Osasuna win4.97
Both teams to score1.92

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.31
Over 2.5 goals1.93
Over 3.5 goals3.36
Ath Madrid most1.80
Osasuna most4.97

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.36
Over 8.5 corners1.62
Over 9.5 corners2.02
Over 10.5 corners2.65
Ath Madrid most1.58
Osasuna most3.73

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.26
Over 3.5 cards1.63
Over 4.5 cards2.34
Over 5.5 cards3.75
Ath Madrid most2.71
Osasuna most2.29

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.34
Over 7.5 SoT1.60
Over 8.5 SoT2.01
Over 9.5 SoT2.66
Ath Madrid most1.53
Osasuna most4.25

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.67
Over 24.5 shots2.13
Over 26.5 shots2.87
Over 28.5 shots4.12
Ath Madrid most1.48
Osasuna most3.75

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.43
Over 22.5 fouls1.78
Over 24.5 fouls2.37
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 59.8% Over 24.5 47.0% Over 26.5 34.8% Over 28.5 24.3%
Most: Ath Madrid 67.7% Most: Osasuna 26.6%
Ath Madrid Over 13.2 50.4% Osasuna Over 13.2 21.7%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 74.6% Over 7.5 62.6% Over 8.5 49.8% Over 9.5 37.6%
Most: Ath Madrid 65.2% Most: Osasuna 23.5%
Ath Madrid Over 4.2 58.2% Osasuna Over 4.2 27.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 79.3% Over 3.5 61.5% Over 4.5 42.7%
Most: Ath Madrid 36.9% Most: Osasuna 43.7%
Ath Madrid Over 1.8 60.0% Osasuna Over 1.8 64.6%

Ath Madrid: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Julián Álvarez 2.57 1.34 0.52 63.3% 57.2% 32.2%
Jonathan Christian David 2.43 1.08 0.47 54.4% 52.8% 29.0%
Ademola Lookman 2.99 1.03 0.48 54.5% 66.5% 30.7%
Carlos Martín 1.8 0.78 0.1 35.9% 27.4% 5.5%
Lee Kang-In 2.32 0.76 0.22 38.1% 43.0% 13.0%

Osasuna: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Raul García 3.54 1.72 0.54 39.7% 28.0% 14.7%
Ante Budimir 3.13 1.26 0.62 67.3% 76.5% 42.3%
Kike Barja 1.66 0.67 0.33 12.3% 4.3% 6.3%
Romain Del Castillo 1.15 0.5 0.34 30.6% 20.6% 22.0%
Raul Moro 1.53 0.49 0.1 27.9% 27.2% 6.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Ath Madrid clean sheet 37.4%
Osasuna clean sheet 17.0%
Ath Madrid win to nil 30.4%
Osasuna win to nil 10.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 55.6% draw 24.3% away 20.1%
double_chance
1X 79.9% 12 75.7% X2 44.4%
dnb
home 73.4% away 26.6%
btts
yes 52.1% no 47.9%
clean_sheet
home 37.8% away 17.1%
win_to_nil
home 30.8% away 10.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.7% home_by_2 17.2% home_by_3plus 14.6%
away_by_1 12.9% away_by_2 5.3% away_by_3plus 2.0%
correct_score
0-0 6.9% 0-1 5.7% 0-2 3.1%
0-3 1.0% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 10.7% 1-1 11.6% 1-2 5.4%
1-3 1.8% 1-4 0.4% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 10.0% 2-1 9.7% 2-2 4.8%
2-3 1.6% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 6.0% 3-1 5.8% 3-2 2.8%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 2.7% 4-1 2.6% 4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 1.0% 5-1 0.9% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.1%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.1% under_0.5 6.9% over_1.5 76.6%
under_1.5 23.4% over_2.5 51.9% under_2.5 48.1%
over_3.5 29.8% under_3.5 70.2% over_4.5 14.5%
under_4.5 85.5% over_5.5 6.2% under_5.5 93.9%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 82.9% under_0.5 17.1% over_1.5 52.9%
under_1.5 47.1% over_2.5 26.4% under_2.5 73.6%
team_away
over_0.5 62.2% under_0.5 37.8% over_1.5 25.5%
under_1.5 74.5% over_2.5 7.6% under_2.5 92.4%
most
home 55.6% draw 24.3% away 20.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 14.6% away_+2.5 85.4% home_-1.5 31.9%
away_+1.5 68.1% home_-0.5 55.6% away_+0.5 44.4%
home_+0.5 79.9% away_-0.5 20.1% home_+1.5 92.8%
away_-1.5 7.2% home_+2.5 98.0% away_-2.5 2.0%
total_exact
exact_0 6.9% exact_1 16.5% exact_2 24.7%
exact_3 22.1% exact_4 15.2% exact_5 8.4%
exact_6 3.9% exact_7plus 2.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 44.4% draw 40.9% away 14.7%
total
over_0.5 68.5% under_0.5 31.5% over_1.5 32.1%
under_1.5 67.9% over_2.5 11.1% under_2.5 88.9%
btts
yes 16.2% no 83.8%
total_exact
exact_0 31.5% exact_1 36.4% exact_2 21.0%
exact_3 8.1% exact_4plus 3.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 49.4% draw 32.0% away 18.5%
total
over_0.5 81.8% under_0.5 18.2% over_1.5 50.7%
under_1.5 49.3% over_2.5 24.3% under_2.5 75.7%
btts
yes 29.4% no 70.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 38.5% H/D 4.6% H/A 1.4%
D/H 20.2% D/D 13.1% D/A 7.6%
A/H 2.8% A/D 3.8% A/A 8.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 73.4% under_7.5 26.6% over_8.5 61.8%
under_8.5 38.2% over_9.5 49.5% under_9.5 50.5%
over_10.5 37.8% under_10.5 62.2% over_11.5 27.4%
under_11.5 72.6% over_12.5 19.0% under_12.5 81.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 78.4% under_3.5 21.6% over_4.5 64.4%
under_4.5 35.6% over_5.5 49.4% under_5.5 50.6%
team_away
over_3.5 53.8% under_3.5 46.2% over_4.5 36.3%
under_4.5 63.7% over_5.5 22.4% under_5.5 77.6%
most
home 63.2% draw 9.9% away 26.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 31.2% away_+3.5 68.8% home_-1.5 52.4%
away_+1.5 47.6% home_-0.5 63.2% away_+0.5 36.8%
home_+0.5 73.2% away_-0.5 26.8% home_+1.5 81.5%
away_-1.5 18.5% home_+3.5 92.7% away_-3.5 7.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 59.8% under_22.5 40.2% over_24.5 47.0%
under_24.5 53.0% over_26.5 34.8% under_26.5 65.1%
over_28.5 24.3% under_28.5 75.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 74.7% under_10.5 25.3% over_12.5 58.7%
under_12.5 41.3% over_14.5 42.2% under_14.5 57.8%
team_away
over_10.5 46.5% under_10.5 53.5% over_12.5 28.8%
under_12.5 71.2% over_14.5 15.9% under_14.5 84.1%
most
home 67.7% draw 5.6% away 26.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 42.4% away_+4.5 57.6% home_-2.5 55.3%
away_+2.5 44.7% home_-0.5 67.7% away_+0.5 32.3%
home_+0.5 73.4% away_-0.5 26.6% home_+2.5 82.9%
away_-2.5 17.1% home_+4.5 89.9% away_-4.5 10.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 74.6% under_6.5 25.4% over_7.5 62.6%
under_7.5 37.4% over_8.5 49.8% under_8.5 50.2%
over_9.5 37.6% under_9.5 62.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.3% under_3.5 25.7% over_4.5 58.2%
under_4.5 41.8% over_5.5 42.0% under_5.5 58.0%
team_away
over_3.5 45.3% under_3.5 54.8% over_4.5 27.5%
under_4.5 72.5% over_5.5 15.0% under_5.5 85.1%
most
home 65.2% draw 11.3% away 23.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 39.7% away_+2.5 60.3% home_-0.5 65.2%
away_+0.5 34.8% home_+0.5 76.5% away_-0.5 23.5%
home_+2.5 91.6% away_-2.5 8.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 79.3% under_2.5 20.7% over_3.5 61.5%
under_3.5 38.5% over_4.5 42.7% under_4.5 57.3%
over_5.5 26.7% under_5.5 73.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 60.0% under_1.5 40.0% over_2.5 33.7%
under_2.5 66.3%
team_away
over_1.5 64.6% under_1.5 35.4% over_2.5 38.7%
under_2.5 61.3%
most
home 36.9% draw 19.4% away 43.7%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.5% away_+1.5 79.5% home_-0.5 36.9%
away_+0.5 63.1% home_+0.5 56.3% away_-0.5 43.7%
home_+1.5 74.0% away_-1.5 26.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 70.0% under_20.5 30.0% over_22.5 56.2%
under_22.5 43.8% over_24.5 42.2% under_24.5 57.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 67.6% under_9.5 32.4% over_11.5 47.3%
under_11.5 52.7% over_13.5 28.9% under_13.5 71.1%
team_away
over_9.5 72.9% under_9.5 27.1% over_11.5 53.6%
under_11.5 46.4% over_13.5 34.7% under_13.5 65.3%
most
home 42.0% draw 7.1% away 50.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.0% away_+3.5 77.0% home_-0.5 42.0%
away_+0.5 58.0% home_+2.5 63.2% away_-2.5 36.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 19.1% no 80.9%
home
yes 15.5% no 84.6%
away
yes 4.3% no 95.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Ath Madrid predictions · Osasuna predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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