Fairly pricedOutside trust zone (model prob 0.40, zone (0.45, 0.7)).
Model pick
Newcastle40.5%
Win probability · fair 2.47
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely81.6%Fair 1.23
Over 8.5 cornersLikely65.4%Fair 1.53
Draw or NewcastleLikely64.5%Fair 1.55
Model read
▾
The probabilities barely separate Aston Villa and Newcastle on 16 August 2025: Newcastle nose ahead at 40%. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Notably, the model is warmer on Newcastle than the market (31%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 59% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 62%. 3) For shots markets, Jhon Durán is the obvious watch at 2.4 on target per 90 in recent data. The recent series reads 2 wins for Aston Villa, 0 draws and 3 for Newcastle over 5 games, 4.2 goals on average. Form guide over the last six: Aston Villa W4 D0 L2, Newcastle W2 D1 L3. Team news worth noting: Aston Villa have Kamara ruled out, Alysson ruled out, Boubacar Kamara, Youri Tielemans ruled out; Newcastle have Schär ruled out. Discipline says sit it out: outside trust zone (model prob 0.40, zone (0.45, 0.7)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners45.6%@ 2.19
Newcastle win40.5%@ 2.47
Over 11.5 corners36.5%@ 2.74
Medium risk
Aston Villa or draw59.5%@ 1.68
Over 2.5 goals59.2%@ 1.69
Over 9.5 corners55.5%@ 1.80
Random finds
1-1 correct score11.5%@ 8.71
1-2 correct score8.6%@ 11.64
2-1 correct score8.2%@ 12.22
Model vs market
Aston Villa
35.5%-7.9%
Draw
24.0%-1.8%
Newcastle
40.5%+9.7%
ModelMarket
outside trust zone (model prob 0.40, zone (0.45, 0.7))
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely81.6%Fair 1.23
Over 2.5Close call59.2%Fair 1.69
BTTS · YesLikely62.0%Fair 1.61
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely65.4%Fair 1.53
Over 9.5 cornersClose call55.5%Fair 1.80
Over 10.5 cornersClose call45.6%Fair 2.19
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely36.5%Fair 2.74
Most cornersAston Villa57.5%Newcastle32.6%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely63.5%Fair 1.58
Over 24.5 shotsClose call51.9%Fair 1.93
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely40.5%Fair 2.47
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely30.0%Fair 3.33
Totals line guide
0.5·1.581.6%2.559.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.581.6%
Discipline: Fairly priced. Outside trust zone (model prob 0.40, zone (0.45, 0.7)).
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Jhon DuránAston Villa · key player
To score29.6%3.38
1+ on target52.8%1.89
2+ shots45.9%2.18
Shots/90 4.96SoT/90 2.4Goals/90 1.12
Alexander IsakNewcastle · key player
To score49.0%2.04
1+ on target73.5%1.36
2+ shots78.8%1.27
Shots/90 3.16SoT/90 1.44Goals/90 0.73
Donyell MalenAston Villa · in form
To score18.2%5.49
1+ on target40.2%2.49
2+ shots32.7%3.06
Shots/90 4.27SoT/90 1.87Goals/90 0.73
William OsulaNewcastle · in form
To score18.9%5.29
1+ on target28.9%3.46
2+ shots16.0%6.25
Shots/90 2.75SoT/90 1.32Goals/90 0.81
Marco AsensioAston Villa · in form
To score20.6%4.85
1+ on target57.1%1.75
2+ shots55.1%1.81
Shots/90 2.88SoT/90 1.32Goals/90 0.36
Harvey BarnesNewcastle · in form
To score20.4%4.90
1+ on target44.3%2.26
2+ shots51.5%1.94
Shots/90 2.95SoT/90 1Goals/90 0.39
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Aston Villa win2.79
Draw3.99
Newcastle win2.55
Both teams to score1.61
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.05
Over 1.5 goals1.23
Over 2.5 goals1.69
Over 3.5 goals2.72
Aston Villa most2.79
Newcastle most2.55
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.26
Over 8.5 corners1.44
Over 9.5 corners1.72
Over 10.5 corners2.15
Aston Villa most1.73
Newcastle most3.06
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.24
Over 3.5 cards1.59
Over 4.5 cards2.29
Over 5.5 cards3.71
Aston Villa most2.85
Newcastle most2.21
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.32
Over 7.5 SoT1.54
Over 8.5 SoT1.89
Over 9.5 SoT2.43
Aston Villa most1.74
Newcastle most3.22
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.58
Over 24.5 shots1.93
Over 26.5 shots2.47
Over 28.5 shots3.33
Aston Villa most1.69
Newcastle most2.84
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.48
Over 22.5 fouls1.93
Over 24.5 fouls2.76
Team news
Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.
KamaraAston VillaOut0% to play
AlyssonAston VillaOut0% to play
Boubacar Kamara, Youri TielemansAston VillaOut
SchärNewcastleOut0% to play
LivramentoNewcastleOut0% to play
KrafthNewcastleOut0% to play
JoelintonNewcastleOut0% to play
TonaliNewcastleDoubtful75% to play
L.MileyNewcastleOut0% to play
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
Over 6.5
75.9%
Over 7.5
64.8%
Over 8.5
52.8%
Over 9.5
41.1%
Most: Aston Villa
57.4%
Most: Newcastle
31.0%
Aston Villa Over 4.2
54.8%
Newcastle Over 4.2
35.6%
Cards
Over 2.5
80.7%
Over 3.5
63.0%
Over 4.5
43.7%
Most: Aston Villa
35.1%
Most: Newcastle
45.2%
Aston Villa Over 1.8
60.3%
Newcastle Over 1.8
67.1%
Aston Villa: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Jhon Durán
4.96
2.4
1.12
52.8%
45.9%
29.6%
Donyell Malen
4.27
1.87
0.73
40.2%
32.7%
18.2%
Marco Asensio
2.88
1.32
0.36
57.1%
55.1%
20.6%
Ollie Watkins
2.7
1.23
0.52
63.8%
65.3%
34.9%
Ross Barkley
2.31
0.88
0.41
27.1%
20.2%
13.7%
Newcastle: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Alexander Isak
3.16
1.44
0.73
73.5%
78.8%
49.0%
William Osula
2.75
1.32
0.81
28.9%
16.0%
18.9%
Harvey Barnes
2.95
1
0.39
44.3%
51.5%
20.4%
Anthony Gordon
2.21
0.78
0.25
46.7%
53.3%
18.3%
Jacob Murphy
1.88
0.62
0.24
33.8%
35.6%
14.8%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Aston Villa clean sheet
20.7%
Newcastle clean sheet
22.3%
Aston Villa win to nil
15.5%
Newcastle win to nil
17.1%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
35.8%
draw
25.1%
away
39.2%
double_chance
1X
60.9%
12
75.0%
X2
64.2%
dnb
home
47.8%
away
52.2%
btts
yes
62.0%
no
38.0%
clean_sheet
home
20.8%
away
22.4%
win_to_nil
home
15.6%
away
17.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1
18.5%
home_by_2
10.7%
home_by_3plus
6.6%
away_by_1
19.5%
away_by_2
11.8%
away_by_3plus
7.9%
correct_score
0-0
5.2%
0-1
6.8%
0-2
5.8%
0-3
3.0%
0-4
1.2%
0-5
0.4%
1-0
6.4%
1-1
11.5%
1-2
8.6%
1-3
4.5%
1-4
1.8%
1-5
0.6%
2-0
5.2%
2-1
8.2%
2-2
6.4%
2-3
3.4%
2-4
1.3%
2-5
0.4%
3-0
2.6%
3-1
4.1%
3-2
3.2%
3-3
1.7%
3-4
0.7%
3-5
0.2%
4-0
1.0%
4-1
1.5%
4-2
1.2%
4-3
0.6%
4-4
0.3%
4-5
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
5-1
0.5%
5-2
0.4%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
1.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
94.8%
under_0.5
5.2%
over_1.5
81.6%
under_1.5
18.4%
over_2.5
59.2%
under_2.5
40.8%
over_3.5
36.8%
under_3.5
63.2%
over_4.5
19.6%
under_4.5
80.4%
over_5.5
9.1%
under_5.5
90.9%
odd_even
odd
48.8%
even
51.2%
team_home
over_0.5
77.6%
under_0.5
22.4%
over_1.5
44.1%
under_1.5
55.9%
over_2.5
19.0%
under_2.5
81.0%
team_away
over_0.5
79.2%
under_0.5
20.8%
over_1.5
46.6%
under_1.5
53.4%
over_2.5
21.0%
under_2.5
79.0%
most
home
35.8%
draw
25.1%
away
39.2%
handicap
home_-2.5
6.6%
away_+2.5
93.4%
home_-1.5
17.3%
away_+1.5
82.7%
home_-0.5
35.8%
away_+0.5
64.2%
home_+0.5
60.9%
away_-0.5
39.2%
home_+1.5
80.3%
away_-1.5
19.7%
home_+2.5
92.1%
away_-2.5
7.9%
total_exact
exact_0
5.2%
exact_1
13.2%
exact_2
22.4%
exact_3
22.4%
exact_4
17.2%
exact_5
10.5%
exact_6
5.4%
exact_7plus
3.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
28.8%
draw
39.9%
away
31.4%
total
over_0.5
73.0%
under_0.5
27.0%
over_1.5
37.7%
under_1.5
62.3%
over_2.5
14.5%
under_2.5
85.5%
btts
yes
23.1%
no
76.9%
total_exact
exact_0
27.0%
exact_1
35.4%
exact_2
23.2%
exact_3
10.1%
exact_4plus
4.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
32.1%
draw
33.6%
away
34.3%
total
over_0.5
82.3%
under_0.5
17.7%
over_1.5
51.7%
under_1.5
48.3%
over_2.5
25.2%
under_2.5
74.8%
btts
yes
33.6%
no
66.4%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
20.8%
H/D
5.3%
H/A
2.7%
D/H
12.8%
D/D
13.4%
D/A
13.7%
A/H
2.6%
A/D
5.4%
A/A
23.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
79.5%
under_7.5
20.5%
over_8.5
69.4%
under_8.5
30.6%
over_9.5
58.1%
under_9.5
41.9%
over_10.5
46.6%
under_10.5
53.4%
over_11.5
35.8%
under_11.5
64.3%
over_12.5
26.2%
under_12.5
73.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
78.7%
under_3.5
21.3%
over_4.5
65.4%
under_4.5
34.6%
over_5.5
51.1%
under_5.5
48.9%
team_away
over_3.5
63.0%
under_3.5
37.0%
over_4.5
46.5%
under_4.5
53.5%
over_5.5
31.8%
under_5.5
68.2%
most
home
57.7%
draw
9.6%
away
32.7%
handicap
home_-3.5
28.8%
away_+3.5
71.2%
home_-1.5
47.7%
away_+1.5
52.3%
home_-0.5
57.7%
away_+0.5
42.3%
home_+0.5
67.3%
away_-0.5
32.7%
home_+1.5
75.9%
away_-1.5
24.2%
home_+3.5
88.6%
away_-3.5
11.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
63.5%
under_22.5
36.5%
over_24.5
51.9%
under_24.5
48.1%
over_26.5
40.5%
under_26.5
59.5%
over_28.5
30.0%
under_28.5
70.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
71.4%
under_10.5
28.6%
over_12.5
56.1%
under_12.5
43.9%
over_14.5
40.8%
under_14.5
59.2%
team_away
over_10.5
55.5%
under_10.5
44.5%
over_12.5
38.7%
under_12.5
61.3%
over_14.5
24.7%
under_14.5
75.3%
most
home
59.2%
draw
5.7%
away
35.2%
handicap
home_-4.5
35.9%
away_+4.5
64.1%
home_-2.5
47.4%
away_+2.5
52.6%
home_-0.5
59.2%
away_+0.5
40.8%
home_+0.5
64.9%
away_-0.5
35.2%
home_+2.5
75.1%
away_-2.5
24.9%
home_+4.5
83.5%
away_-4.5
16.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
75.9%
under_6.5
24.1%
over_7.5
64.8%
under_7.5
35.2%
over_8.5
52.8%
under_8.5
47.2%
over_9.5
41.1%
under_9.5
58.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
70.8%
under_3.5
29.2%
over_4.5
54.8%
under_4.5
45.2%
over_5.5
39.5%
under_5.5
60.6%
team_away
over_3.5
53.2%
under_3.5
46.8%
over_4.5
35.6%
under_4.5
64.4%
over_5.5
21.8%
under_5.5
78.2%
most
home
57.4%
draw
11.6%
away
31.0%
handicap
home_-2.5
33.5%
away_+2.5
66.5%
home_-0.5
57.4%
away_+0.5
42.7%
home_+0.5
69.0%
away_-0.5
31.0%
home_+2.5
86.7%
away_-2.5
13.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
80.8%
under_2.5
19.3%
over_3.5
63.0%
under_3.5
37.0%
over_4.5
43.7%
under_4.5
56.3%
over_5.5
27.0%
under_5.5
73.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
60.3%
under_1.5
39.7%
over_2.5
33.2%
under_2.5
66.8%
team_away
over_1.5
67.1%
under_1.5
32.9%
over_2.5
40.6%
under_2.5
59.4%
most
home
35.1%
draw
19.7%
away
45.3%
handicap
home_-1.5
19.0%
away_+1.5
81.1%
home_-0.5
35.1%
away_+0.5
64.9%
home_+0.5
54.8%
away_-0.5
45.3%
home_+1.5
73.1%
away_-1.5
26.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
67.4%
under_20.5
32.6%
over_22.5
51.7%
under_22.5
48.3%
over_24.5
36.3%
under_24.5
63.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
63.1%
under_9.5
36.9%
over_11.5
40.1%
under_11.5
60.0%
over_13.5
21.1%
under_13.5
78.9%
team_away
over_9.5
75.3%
under_9.5
24.7%
over_11.5
54.3%
under_11.5
45.7%
over_13.5
33.3%
under_13.5
66.7%
most
home
36.2%
draw
7.8%
away
56.1%
handicap
home_-3.5
16.9%
away_+3.5
83.1%
home_-0.5
36.2%
away_+0.5
63.8%
home_+2.5
59.9%
away_-2.5
40.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
13.3%
no
86.7%
home
yes
11.3%
no
88.7%
away
yes
2.2%
no
97.8%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Premier League
Aston Villa
Newcastle