Championship
West Ham vs Derby Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 55.6% and it missed (2 in the match). We called No at 95.7% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 55.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 75.4% for over 2.5 to 20.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.6%. Between the two sides, Derby are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 55.5%, with a level count at 19.4%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 75.4% | 24.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 36.1% | 63.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 20.7% | 79.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
46.7%
21.0%
68.6%
42.3%
Card handicap
| West Ham line | West Ham | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11.5% | 88.5% |
| -0.5 | 25.1% | 74.9% |
| +0.5 | 44.6% | 55.5% |
| +1.5 | 65.0% | 35.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 32.0% | 68.0% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for West Ham vs Derby. It tips Derby for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
55.6%Over 3.5 cards4.3%Any red card46.7%West Ham over 1.5 cards68.6%Derby over 1.5 cards46.7%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, West Ham over 1.5 cards sits at 46.7% and Derby at 68.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 4.3% (West Ham 1.0%, Derby 3.3%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in West Ham vs Derby?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 55.6% for West Ham vs Derby.
Will there be a red card in West Ham vs Derby?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 4.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in West Ham vs Derby?
Before kickoff, the model rated Derby to pick up more cards at 55.5%, with a level count at 19.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.