West Brom vs Watford: model prediction
ChampionshipWest Brom or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time7 of 11 calls right
Our most likely call was West Brom at 47.1%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 56.4% and it landed (1 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 70.3% and it missed (1 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 77.4% and it landed (1 goals). We called No at 51.7% and it landed. We called Yes at 67.2% and it landed. We called Yes at 71.6% and it missed. We called Over 9.5 at 55.2% and it missed (9 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 53.6% and it landed (8 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 52.6% and it landed (20 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 52.8% and it missed (6 shots on target). We called No at 95.1% and it landed.
| Match data | West Brom | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Goals, 1st half | 1 | 0 |
| Goals, 2nd half | 0 | 0 |
| Shots | 9 | 11 |
| Shots on target | 4 | 2 |
| Corners | 5 | 4 |
| Yellow cards | 5 | 3 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 18 | 11 |
Final match data.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
West Brom versus Watford on 5 September 2026 tilts towards West Brom in our numbers (47%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. The numbers that frame it: • The market is more convinced than we are, pricing West Brom at 52%. Caution noted. • This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 44% with both teams to score at 48%. • Form guide over the last six: West Brom W2 D2 L2, Watford W1 D2 L3. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for West Brom, 1 draws and 2 for Watford, averaging 3.2 goals a game. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.026 <= 0.03).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
47.1%-5.1%
27.9%+2.6%
25.0%+2.5%
value_gap +0.026 <= 0.03
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: West Brom 2 · 1 draws · Watford 2 · 3.2 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
WatfordLeague averages this season: 2.94 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 67% · BTTS in 73%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 65.8% | Over 7.5 | 52.8% | Over 8.5 | 40.1% | Over 9.5 | 28.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: West Brom | 59.2% | Most: Watford | 28.4% | ||||
| West Brom Over 4.2 | 47.5% | Watford Over 4.2 | 25.6% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 73.9% | Over 3.5 | 53.6% | Over 4.5 | 34.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: West Brom | 30.9% | Most: Watford | 48.4% | ||
| West Brom Over 1.8 | 50.7% | Watford Over 1.8 | 63.2% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| West Brom clean sheet | 37.4% |
|---|---|
| Watford clean sheet | 23.6% |
| West Brom win to nil | 27.9% |
| Watford win to nil | 14.1% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 47.2% | draw | 27.9% | away | 25.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 75.0% | 12 | 72.2% | X2 | 52.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 65.4% | away | 34.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 48.3% | no | 51.7% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 37.5% | away | 23.6% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 28.0% | away | 14.1% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 23.6% | home_by_2 | 14.4% | home_by_3plus | 9.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 15.8% | away_by_2 | 6.7% | away_by_3plus | 2.5% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 9.5% | 0-1 | 8.1% | 0-2 | 4.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.4% | 0-4 | 0.3% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 12.2% | 1-1 | 13.2% | 1-2 | 6.1% |
| 1-3 | 2.0% | 1-4 | 0.5% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 9.2% | 2-1 | 9.0% | 2-2 | 4.4% |
| 2-3 | 1.5% | 2-4 | 0.4% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.4% | 3-1 | 4.4% | 3-2 | 2.1% |
| 3-3 | 0.7% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 1.6% | 4-1 | 1.6% | 4-2 | 0.8% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.5% | 5-1 | 0.4% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 90.5% | under_0.5 | 9.5% | over_1.5 | 70.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 29.7% | over_2.5 | 43.6% | under_2.5 | 56.4% |
| over_3.5 | 22.6% | under_3.5 | 77.4% | over_4.5 | 9.9% |
| under_4.5 | 90.1% | over_5.5 | 3.7% | under_5.5 | 96.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.4% | even | 51.7% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 76.4% | under_0.5 | 23.6% | over_1.5 | 42.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 57.7% | over_2.5 | 17.7% | under_2.5 | 82.3% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 62.5% | under_0.5 | 37.5% | over_1.5 | 25.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 74.3% | over_2.5 | 7.7% | under_2.5 | 92.3% |
most
| home | 47.2% | draw | 27.9% | away | 25.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 9.1% | away_+2.5 | 90.9% | home_-1.5 | 23.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 76.5% | home_-0.5 | 47.2% | away_+0.5 | 52.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 75.0% | away_-0.5 | 25.0% | home_+1.5 | 90.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 9.2% | home_+2.5 | 97.5% | away_-2.5 | 2.5% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 9.5% | exact_1 | 20.2% | exact_2 | 26.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.0% | exact_4 | 12.7% | exact_5 | 6.2% |
| exact_6 | 2.5% | exact_7plus | 1.2% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 37.9% | draw | 43.0% | away | 19.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 67.2% | under_0.5 | 32.8% | over_1.5 | 30.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.4% | over_2.5 | 10.2% | under_2.5 | 89.8% |
btts
| yes | 17.0% | no | 83.0% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 32.8% | exact_1 | 36.6% | exact_2 | 20.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.6% | exact_4plus | 2.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 35.1% | draw | 40.6% | away | 24.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 71.6% | under_0.5 | 28.4% | over_1.5 | 35.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 64.2% | over_2.5 | 13.3% | under_2.5 | 86.7% |
btts
| yes | 21.4% | no | 78.6% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 30.9% | H/D | 5.4% | H/A | 1.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 15.1% | D/D | 17.5% | D/A | 10.5% |
| A/H | 1.7% | A/D | 4.1% | A/A | 13.3% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 77.6% | under_7.5 | 22.5% | over_8.5 | 66.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 33.1% | over_9.5 | 55.2% | under_9.5 | 44.8% |
| over_10.5 | 43.4% | under_10.5 | 56.6% | over_11.5 | 32.6% |
| under_11.5 | 67.4% | over_12.5 | 23.4% | under_12.5 | 76.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 79.8% | under_3.5 | 20.2% | over_4.5 | 66.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 33.8% | over_5.5 | 51.5% | under_5.5 | 48.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 59.6% | under_3.5 | 40.4% | over_4.5 | 42.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 57.8% | over_5.5 | 27.4% | under_5.5 | 72.7% |
most
| home | 61.0% | draw | 10.0% | away | 29.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 29.8% | away_+3.5 | 70.2% | home_-1.5 | 50.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 49.7% | home_-0.5 | 61.0% | away_+0.5 | 39.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.0% | away_-0.5 | 29.0% | home_+1.5 | 79.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 20.5% | home_+3.5 | 91.4% | away_-3.5 | 8.6% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 60.1% | under_22.5 | 39.9% | over_24.5 | 47.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 52.6% | over_26.5 | 35.3% | under_26.5 | 64.7% |
| over_28.5 | 24.7% | under_28.5 | 75.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 73.4% | under_10.5 | 26.7% | over_12.5 | 57.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 42.9% | over_14.5 | 40.7% | under_14.5 | 59.3% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 48.9% | under_10.5 | 51.1% | over_12.5 | 31.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 69.0% | over_14.5 | 17.7% | under_14.5 | 82.3% |
most
| home | 65.1% | draw | 5.8% | away | 29.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 39.8% | away_+4.5 | 60.2% | home_-2.5 | 52.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 47.5% | home_-0.5 | 65.1% | away_+0.5 | 34.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.9% | away_-0.5 | 29.1% | home_+2.5 | 80.9% |
| away_-2.5 | 19.1% | home_+4.5 | 88.4% | away_-4.5 | 11.6% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 65.8% | under_6.5 | 34.2% | over_7.5 | 52.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 47.2% | over_8.5 | 40.1% | under_8.5 | 59.9% |
| over_9.5 | 28.9% | under_9.5 | 71.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 64.7% | under_3.5 | 35.3% | over_4.5 | 47.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 52.5% | over_5.5 | 32.1% | under_5.5 | 67.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 42.5% | under_3.5 | 57.5% | over_4.5 | 25.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 74.4% | over_5.5 | 13.9% | under_5.5 | 86.1% |
most
| home | 59.2% | draw | 12.4% | away | 28.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 33.3% | away_+2.5 | 66.7% | home_-0.5 | 59.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 40.8% | home_+0.5 | 71.6% | away_-0.5 | 28.4% |
| home_+2.5 | 89.3% | away_-2.5 | 10.7% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 73.9% | under_2.5 | 26.1% | over_3.5 | 53.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 46.4% | over_4.5 | 34.2% | under_4.5 | 65.9% |
| over_5.5 | 19.2% | under_5.5 | 80.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 50.7% | under_1.5 | 49.3% | over_2.5 | 24.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 75.7% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 63.2% | under_1.5 | 36.8% | over_2.5 | 36.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 63.7% |
most
| home | 30.9% | draw | 20.7% | away | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 15.2% | away_+1.5 | 84.8% | home_-0.5 | 30.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 69.1% | home_+0.5 | 51.6% | away_-0.5 | 48.4% |
| home_+1.5 | 71.5% | away_-1.5 | 28.5% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 55.9% | under_20.5 | 44.1% | over_22.5 | 40.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 59.9% | over_24.5 | 26.2% | under_24.5 | 73.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 48.0% | under_9.5 | 52.0% | over_11.5 | 26.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 73.6% | over_13.5 | 12.0% | under_13.5 | 88.0% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 72.7% | under_9.5 | 27.3% | over_11.5 | 51.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 48.1% | over_13.5 | 31.7% | under_13.5 | 68.3% |
most
| home | 28.4% | draw | 7.2% | away | 64.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 11.9% | away_+3.5 | 88.1% | home_-0.5 | 28.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 71.6% | home_+2.5 | 51.5% | away_-2.5 | 48.5% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 4.9% | no | 95.1% |
|---|
home
| yes | 0.8% | no | 99.2% |
|---|
away
| yes | 4.1% | no | 95.9% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: West Brom predictions · Watford predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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