Championship
Sheffield United vs 
Wolves Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 52.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 72.6% for over 2.5 to 18.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.0%. On the card count, Wolves are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.7%, with a level count at 21.1%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 72.6% | 27.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 32.6% | 67.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 18.0% | 82.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
51.5%
25.0%
60.6%
33.5%
Card handicap
| Sheffield United line | Sheffield United | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.6% | 83.4% |
| -0.5 | 33.2% | 66.8% |
| +0.5 | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| +1.5 | 73.9% | 26.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 62.3% | 37.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 32.0% | 68.0% |
This season (2026/27)
1.3Sheffield United cards per game11.5Sheffield United fouls per game1.0Wolves cards per game10.8Wolves fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sheffield United vs Wolves. It tips Wolves for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
52.0%Over 3.5 cards8.8%Any red card51.5%Sheffield United over 1.5 cards60.6%Wolves over 1.5 cards46.7%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Sheffield United over 1.5 cards sits at 51.5% and Wolves at 60.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.8% (Sheffield United 3.8%, Wolves 5.2%). This season Sheffield United have averaged 1.3 cards a game and Wolves 1.0.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Sheffield United vs Wolves?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 52.0% for Sheffield United vs Wolves.
Will there be a red card in Sheffield United vs Wolves?
The model rates a red card for either side at 8.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sheffield United vs Wolves?
The model rates Wolves to pick up more cards at 45.7%, with a level count at 21.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.