Championship

West Ham vs Derby Double Chance

2026-09-05 · 15:00

Double Chance72.7%Home or Away

Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.

Result

West Ham 3-0 Derby

✓ West Ham or Derby

The highest-probability cover, West Ham or Derby (72.7%), landed.

Best predictionHome or Away · 72.7%A clear lean on the model’s numbers. Calibrated, not a tip.

73%

model probability

ConvictionStrong

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Home or Away at 72.7%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. On the result, Derby are favoured at 42.5%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.

Double Chance

West Ham or Draw57.5%

Draw or Derby69.8%

★ Top coverWest Ham or Derby72.7%

Draw no bet

West Ham41.5%

Derby58.5%

Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.

Winning margin

Margin	Probability
West Ham by 1	17.6%
West Ham by 2	8.6%
West Ham by 3+	4.0%
Derby by 1	21.7%
Derby by 2	12.9%
Derby by 3+	7.9%
Draw	27.3%

Goal handicap

West Ham line	West Ham	Derby
-1.5	12.6%	87.4%
-0.5	30.2%	69.8%
+0.5	57.5%	42.5%
+1.5	79.2%	20.8%

Two of three outcomes covered, lower odds, higher strike rate. The highest-probability cover is West Ham or Derby on the model numbers.

In-depth analysis

42.5%Favoured: Derby

53.2%Both Teams to Score

48.4%Over 2.5 goals

On the result, Derby are favoured at 42.5%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.

Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.

Model lenses

Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 72.7% on Double Chance, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.

The TacticianSees a balanced game from the 48.4% over 2.5 read.

The ScoutDerby are the model’s pick on the result at 42.5%, context for how the goals may flow.

The RealistThis one sits near a coin-flip, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

Form & head-to-head

West HamDLDW

DerbyLLDLW

FAQ

Which double chance landed in West Ham vs Derby?
Home or Away was the highest-probability cover at 72.7%; it landed, final score 3-0.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Double Chance accuracy

How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.

75.8%Best Double Chance call, hit rate

0.0097Calibration error

55,318Matches graded

In 39,986 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

Our last 10 Double Chance calls

The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.

✗ 78.1%✓ 80.2%✓ 81.4%✓ 84.3%✗ 71.2%✓ 72.9%✗ 71.7%✓ 77.1%✓ 81.1%✓ 70.6%

7 of 10 recent calls hit.

Estrela vs Sp Braga2026-09-10Draw or Away 78.1%Miss

Panathinaikos vs Kifisia2026-09-10Home or Draw 80.2%Hit

Twente vs Telstar2026-09-09Home or Draw 81.4%Hit

Moreirense vs Benfica2026-09-09Draw or Away 84.3%Hit

Derby vs West Brom2026-09-09Home or Draw 71.2%Miss

More Championship, Double Chance

Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.

West Ham vs Derby prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)