Bundesliga
Union Berlin vs 
Ein Frankfurt Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Most likely · 11.8% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Union Berlin have averaged 2.2 scored and 1.6 conceded, Ein Frankfurt 1.4 and 2.2 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 57.3% for over 2.5 and 80.3% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.2% |
| 1-0 | 7.1% |
| 0-1 | 6.9% |
| 2-2 | 6.2% |
| 2-0 | 5.8% |
| 0-0 | 5.7% |
Score probability grid
| Union Berlin \ Ein Frankfurt | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 7% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 6% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | · | · |
| 5 | · | 1% | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Union Berlin goals, columns = Ein Frankfurt. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11.8%. No exact score is ever truly likely; the value is in the full distribution the model assigns. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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1
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5+
In-depth analysis
For the goal environment, the model sees 57.3% for three or more goals and 80.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Union Berlin favoured at 39.1%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Union Berlin 2 · 3 draws · Ein Frankfurt 0 · 2.8 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Union Berlin vs Ein Frankfurt?
The model's most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Ein Frankfurt is 1-1 at 11.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
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Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.