BundesligaElversberg vs 
Leverkusen Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 9.7% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. That fits an open goals environment: 65.2% for over 2.5 and 85.3% for at least two goals. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 9.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.6% |
| 0-2 | 7.6% |
| 0-1 | 6.8% |
| 1-3 | 6.7% |
| 2-2 | 6.1% |
| 2-1 | 5.8% |
| 0-3 | 5.3% |
Score probability grid
| Elversberg \ Leverkusen | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 7% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 1% |
| 1 | 4% | 10% | 10% | 7% | 4% | 1% |
| 2 | 3% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| 3 | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 4 | · | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Elversberg goals, columns = Leverkusen. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9.7%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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1
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In-depth analysis
On the goals side, the model sees 65.2% for three or more goals and 85.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Leverkusen favoured at 56.6%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Elversberg vs Leverkusen?
The model's most likely scoreline for Elversberg vs Leverkusen is 1-1 at 9.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 29 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Bundesliga, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.