Eredivisie
Twente vs 
Den Haag Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 62.8%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 73.1% for over 22.5 to 40.7% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.8%. Between the two sides, Twente are the model’s pick to have more shots at 65.0%, with a level count at 5.1%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 73.1% | 26.9% |
| 24.5 shots | 62.8% | 37.2% |
| 26.5 shots | 51.8% | 48.2% |
| 28.5 shots | 40.7% | 59.3% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
80.2%
67.4%
53.2%
58.6%
42.1%
28.0%
Shot handicap
| Twente line | Twente | Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| -2.5 | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| -0.5 | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| +0.5 | 70.1% | 29.9% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 83.7% | 16.3% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 74.9% | 25.1% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 64.8% | 35.2% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 54.1% | 45.9% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
21.2Twente shots per game9.8Twente shots faced per game11.0Den Haag shots per game16.2Den Haag shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Twente.
In-depth analysis
62.8%Over 24.5 shots67.4%Twente over 12.5 shots42.1%Den Haag over 12.5 shots74.9%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Twente over 12.5 shots sits at 67.4% and Den Haag at 42.1%. This season Twente have averaged 21.2 shots a game and Den Haag 11.0.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Twente vs Den Haag?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 62.8% for Twente vs Den Haag.
Which team will have more shots in Twente vs Den Haag?
The model rates Twente to take more shots at 65.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,742 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.