Eredivisie
Twente vs 
Den Haag Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 2.5 goals at 64.5%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Twente have averaged 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded, Den Haag 1.2 and 2.8 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 64.5% for over 2.5 and 84.8% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 goals a game. Twente have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Den Haag in 4 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 96.0% | 4.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 84.8% | 15.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| 3.5 goals | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| 4.5 goals | 24.2% | 75.8% |
| 5.5 goals | 12.0% | 88.0% |
Team goal lines
90.5%
68.1%
41.8%
62.1%
25.3%
7.5%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 77.2% | 22.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 18.6% | 81.4% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 87.7% | 12.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 61.9% | 38.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 34.9% | 65.1% |
This season (2026/27)
2.0Twente goals scored per game1.0Twente goals conceded per game60.0%Twente Over 2.5 rate1.0Twente 1st-half goals per game1.2Den Haag goals scored per game2.8Den Haag goals conceded per game80.0%Den Haag Over 2.5 rate0.2Den Haag 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
56.6%Both Teams to Score64.5%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 64.5% for three or more goals and 84.8% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Twente favoured at 67.8%, they may control possession and keep things tighter.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Twente to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Twente 2 · 1 draws · Den Haag 2 · 3.8 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Twente vs Den Haag?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 64.5% for Twente vs Den Haag.
Will there be a first-half goal in Twente vs Den Haag?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 77.2%.
How often have Twente gone over 2.5 recently?
Twente have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Den Haag in 4 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 6,496 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.