Ligue 1
Toulouse vs 
Le Havre Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 49.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 70.4% for over 2.5 to 16.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.3%. On the card count, Le Havre are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.7%, with a level count at 21.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 70.4% | 29.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 30.1% | 69.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.2% | 83.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
52.4%
25.7%
56.2%
29.2%
Card handicap
| Toulouse line | Toulouse | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.7% | 81.3% |
| -0.5 | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| +0.5 | 58.3% | 41.7% |
| +1.5 | 77.4% | 22.6% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 83.1% | 16.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 72.3% | 27.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 59.3% | 40.7% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Toulouse vs Le Havre. Slightly more cards are projected for Le Havre for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
49.3%Over 3.5 cards18.6%Any red card52.4%Toulouse over 1.5 cards56.2%Le Havre over 1.5 cards72.3%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Toulouse over 1.5 cards sits at 52.4% and Le Havre at 56.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.6% (Toulouse 10.5%, Le Havre 9.1%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Toulouse vs Le Havre?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 49.3% for Toulouse vs Le Havre.
Will there be a red card in Toulouse vs Le Havre?
The model rates a red card for either side at 18.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Toulouse vs Le Havre?
The model rates Le Havre to pick up more cards at 41.7%, with a level count at 21.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,167 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 15 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.