Ligue 1
Auxerre vs 
Brest Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 51.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 72.4% for over 2.5 to 17.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.7%. Between the two sides, Brest are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.3%, with a level count at 21.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 72.4% | 27.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 32.3% | 67.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 17.8% | 82.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
51.6%
25.0%
60.1%
33.0%
Card handicap
| Auxerre line | Auxerre | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.8% | 83.2% |
| -0.5 | 33.5% | 66.5% |
| +0.5 | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| +1.5 | 74.3% | 25.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 79.4% | 20.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 67.4% | 32.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 53.8% | 46.2% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Auxerre vs Brest. It tips Brest for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
51.7%Over 3.5 cards23.8%Any red card51.6%Auxerre over 1.5 cards60.1%Brest over 1.5 cards67.4%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Auxerre over 1.5 cards sits at 51.6% and Brest at 60.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 23.8% (Auxerre 15.6%, Brest 9.6%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Auxerre vs Brest?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 51.7% for Auxerre vs Brest.
Will there be a red card in Auxerre vs Brest?
The model rates a red card for either side at 23.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Auxerre vs Brest?
The model rates Brest to pick up more cards at 45.3%, with a level count at 21.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.