Segunda DivisiónTenerife vs 
Almeria Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 73.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 87.3% for over 2.5 to 38.0% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.5%. Head to head on cards, Almeria are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.9%, with a level count at 18.4%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 87.3% | 12.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 73.2% | 26.9% |
| 4.5 cards | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 38.0% | 62.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
70.9%
45.2%
71.1%
45.4%
Card handicap
| Tenerife line | Tenerife | Almeria |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24.2% | 75.8% |
| -0.5 | 40.7% | 59.4% |
| +0.5 | 59.1% | 40.9% |
| +1.5 | 75.5% | 24.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 84.6% | 15.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 74.5% | 25.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 62.2% | 37.8% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Tenerife vs Almeria. The model leans toward Almeria for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
73.2%Over 3.5 cards23.0%Any red card70.9%Tenerife over 1.5 cards71.1%Almeria over 1.5 cards74.5%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Tenerife over 1.5 cards sits at 70.9% and Almeria at 71.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 23.0% (Tenerife 12.8%, Almeria 11.6%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Tenerife vs Almeria?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 73.2% for Tenerife vs Almeria.
Will there be a red card in Tenerife vs Almeria?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 23.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Tenerife vs Almeria?
Before kickoff, the model rated Almeria to pick up more cards at 40.9%, with a level count at 18.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Segunda División, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.