Tenerife vs Almeria: model prediction
Segunda DivisiónOver 1.5 goals
Draw or Almeria
Both teams to score
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Almeria at 50.6%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 60.2% and it missed (1 goals). We called Yes at 61.0% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"51% on Almeria is a measurement, not a promise." Few Segunda División fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Almeria carry a 51% win probability against Tenerife on 23 August 2026. Our number sits above the market's 43% for Almeria. The gap itself is information. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 60% with both teams to score at 61%. The recent series reads 0 wins for Tenerife, 0 draws and 5 for Almeria over 5 games, 1.8 goals on average. Form guide over the last six: Tenerife W1 D2 L3, Almeria W3 D1 L2. As a promoted side, Tenerife carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Verdict: no bet. Trust gate: no_trust (segment historically unreliable).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
25.6%-3.1%
23.8%-4.9%
50.6%+8.0%
trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)
Goals markets
High probability
Strong chance
Strong chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Tenerife 0 · 0 draws · Almeria 5 · 1.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
AlmeriaBookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 78.3% | Over 7.5 | 66.8% | Over 8.5 | 54.1% | Over 9.5 | 41.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Tenerife | 54.9% | Most: Almeria | 32.5% | ||||
| Tenerife Over 4.2 | 54.4% | Almeria Over 4.2 | 38.1% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 87.3% | Over 3.5 | 73.2% | Over 4.5 | 55.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Tenerife | 40.6% | Most: Almeria | 41.0% | ||
| Tenerife Over 1.8 | 70.9% | Almeria Over 1.8 | 71.1% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Tenerife clean sheet | 15.7% |
|---|---|
| Almeria clean sheet | 27.9% |
| Tenerife win to nil | 10.7% |
| Almeria win to nil | 23.0% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 25.6% | draw | 23.8% | away | 50.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 49.4% | 12 | 76.2% | X2 | 74.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 33.6% | away | 66.4% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 61.0% | no | 39.0% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 15.7% | away | 28.2% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 10.8% | away | 23.3% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 14.8% | home_by_2 | 7.3% | home_by_3plus | 3.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 21.9% | away_by_2 | 15.6% | away_by_3plus | 13.2% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 5.0% | 0-1 | 7.7% | 0-2 | 7.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 4.7% | 0-4 | 2.2% | 0-5 | 0.8% |
| 1-0 | 5.1% | 1-1 | 10.9% | 1-2 | 9.6% |
| 1-3 | 5.9% | 1-4 | 2.7% | 1-5 | 1.0% |
| 2-0 | 3.6% | 2-1 | 6.6% | 2-2 | 6.1% |
| 2-3 | 3.8% | 2-4 | 1.7% | 2-5 | 0.6% |
| 3-0 | 1.5% | 3-1 | 2.8% | 3-2 | 2.6% |
| 3-3 | 1.6% | 3-4 | 0.7% | 3-5 | 0.3% |
| 4-0 | 0.5% | 4-1 | 0.9% | 4-2 | 0.8% |
| 4-3 | 0.5% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 10.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 95.0% | under_0.5 | 5.0% | over_1.5 | 82.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 17.7% | over_2.5 | 60.2% | under_2.5 | 39.8% |
| over_3.5 | 37.9% | under_3.5 | 62.1% | over_4.5 | 20.5% |
| under_4.5 | 79.6% | over_5.5 | 9.6% | under_5.5 | 90.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.9% | even | 51.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 71.8% | under_0.5 | 28.2% | over_1.5 | 36.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 63.9% | over_2.5 | 13.5% | under_2.5 | 86.5% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 84.3% | under_0.5 | 15.7% | over_1.5 | 55.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 44.8% | over_2.5 | 28.3% | under_2.5 | 71.7% |
most
| home | 25.6% | draw | 23.8% | away | 50.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 3.6% | away_+2.5 | 96.4% | home_-1.5 | 10.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 89.2% | home_-0.5 | 25.6% | away_+0.5 | 74.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 49.4% | away_-0.5 | 50.6% | home_+1.5 | 71.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 28.8% | home_+2.5 | 86.8% | away_-2.5 | 13.2% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 5.0% | exact_1 | 12.8% | exact_2 | 22.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.4% | exact_4 | 17.4% | exact_5 | 10.9% |
| exact_6 | 5.6% | exact_7plus | 4.0% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 27.3% | draw | 39.6% | away | 33.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 73.3% | under_0.5 | 26.8% | over_1.5 | 38.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 62.0% | over_2.5 | 14.7% | under_2.5 | 85.3% |
btts
| yes | 23.2% | no | 76.8% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 26.8% | exact_1 | 35.3% | exact_2 | 23.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 10.2% | exact_4plus | 4.5% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 34.7% | draw | 35.3% | away | 30.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 79.9% | under_0.5 | 20.1% | over_1.5 | 47.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 52.4% | over_2.5 | 21.7% | under_2.5 | 78.3% |
btts
| yes | 30.3% | no | 69.7% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 20.7% | H/D | 4.6% | H/A | 2.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 13.7% | D/D | 14.0% | D/A | 11.9% |
| A/H | 2.9% | A/D | 6.1% | A/A | 24.0% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 70.1% | under_7.5 | 30.0% | over_8.5 | 57.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 42.1% | over_9.5 | 45.4% | under_9.5 | 54.6% |
| over_10.5 | 33.9% | under_10.5 | 66.1% | over_11.5 | 24.0% |
| under_11.5 | 76.0% | over_12.5 | 16.1% | under_12.5 | 83.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 72.6% | under_3.5 | 27.4% | over_4.5 | 56.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 43.1% | over_5.5 | 41.4% | under_5.5 | 58.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.3% | under_3.5 | 42.7% | over_4.5 | 39.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.2% | over_5.5 | 25.2% | under_5.5 | 74.8% |
most
| home | 55.8% | draw | 10.9% | away | 33.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.1% | away_+3.5 | 75.9% | home_-1.5 | 44.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 55.6% | home_-0.5 | 55.8% | away_+0.5 | 44.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.7% | away_-0.5 | 33.3% | home_+1.5 | 76.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.7% | home_+3.5 | 90.1% | away_-3.5 | 10.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 66.0% | under_22.5 | 34.0% | over_24.5 | 53.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 46.6% | over_26.5 | 40.9% | under_26.5 | 59.1% |
| over_28.5 | 29.4% | under_28.5 | 70.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 75.0% | under_10.5 | 25.0% | over_12.5 | 58.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 41.3% | over_14.5 | 41.8% | under_14.5 | 58.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 56.7% | under_10.5 | 43.3% | over_12.5 | 38.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 62.0% | over_14.5 | 22.8% | under_14.5 | 77.2% |
most
| home | 61.3% | draw | 6.0% | away | 32.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 35.9% | away_+4.5 | 64.1% | home_-2.5 | 48.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 51.5% | home_-0.5 | 61.3% | away_+0.5 | 38.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.3% | away_-0.5 | 32.7% | home_+2.5 | 78.0% |
| away_-2.5 | 22.0% | home_+4.5 | 86.3% | away_-4.5 | 13.7% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 78.3% | under_6.5 | 21.7% | over_7.5 | 66.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 33.2% | over_8.5 | 54.1% | under_8.5 | 46.0% |
| over_9.5 | 41.4% | under_9.5 | 58.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 71.6% | under_3.5 | 28.4% | over_4.5 | 54.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 45.6% | over_5.5 | 37.7% | under_5.5 | 62.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 56.9% | under_3.5 | 43.1% | over_4.5 | 38.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 61.9% | over_5.5 | 22.9% | under_5.5 | 77.1% |
most
| home | 54.9% | draw | 12.5% | away | 32.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 29.9% | away_+2.5 | 70.1% | home_-0.5 | 54.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 45.1% | home_+0.5 | 67.5% | away_-0.5 | 32.5% |
| home_+2.5 | 86.6% | away_-2.5 | 13.4% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 87.3% | under_2.5 | 12.7% | over_3.5 | 73.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 26.9% | over_4.5 | 55.5% | under_4.5 | 44.5% |
| over_5.5 | 38.0% | under_5.5 | 62.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 70.9% | under_1.5 | 29.1% | over_2.5 | 45.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 54.8% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 71.1% | under_1.5 | 28.9% | over_2.5 | 45.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 54.6% |
most
| home | 40.7% | draw | 18.4% | away | 40.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 24.2% | away_+1.5 | 75.8% | home_-0.5 | 40.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 59.4% | home_+0.5 | 59.1% | away_-0.5 | 40.9% |
| home_+1.5 | 75.5% | away_-1.5 | 24.5% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 84.6% | under_20.5 | 15.4% | over_22.5 | 74.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 25.5% | over_24.5 | 62.2% | under_24.5 | 37.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 82.7% | under_9.5 | 17.3% | over_11.5 | 66.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 33.3% | over_13.5 | 48.3% | under_13.5 | 51.7% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 79.4% | under_9.5 | 20.7% | over_11.5 | 61.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 38.1% | over_13.5 | 43.0% | under_13.5 | 57.0% |
most
| home | 50.3% | draw | 6.7% | away | 43.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 31.0% | away_+3.5 | 69.0% | home_-0.5 | 50.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 49.7% | home_+2.5 | 69.6% | away_-2.5 | 30.4% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 23.0% | no | 77.0% |
|---|
home
| yes | 12.8% | no | 87.2% |
|---|
away
| yes | 11.6% | no | 88.4% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Tenerife predictions · Almeria predictions · Segunda División
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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