West Brom vs Burnley: model prediction
ChampionshipWest Brom or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was West Brom at 53.6%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 56.4% and it missed (4 goals). We called No at 53.9% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The numbers leave little room for romance here: West Brom at 54% against Burnley, Championship, 23 August 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Notably, the model is warmer on West Brom than the market (34%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. 2) This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 44% with both teams to score at 46%. 3) As a promoted side, Burnley carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. On the availability front, Burnley have Josh Cullen, Zeki Amdouni, Connor Roberts, Axel Tuanzebe, Mike Tresor, Hannibal Mejbri, Jordan Beyer ruled out. History adds colour: across the last 4 meetings it is 0 wins for West Brom, 3 draws and 1 for Burnley at 1.8 goals per match. The run in: West Brom arrive W3 D2 L1, Burnley W5 D1 L0. Verdict: no bet. Trust gate: no_trust (segment historically unreliable).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
53.6%+19.3%
26.6%-1.1%
19.9%-18.1%
trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: West Brom 0 · 3 draws · Burnley 1 · 1.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
BurnleyPlayers to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 3.17
@ 1.95
@ 1.87
@ 5.13
@ 2.15
@ 2.29
@ 15.15
@ 4.13
@ 5.32
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
Team news
Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.
- Josh Cullen, Zeki Amdouni, Connor Roberts, Axel Tuanzebe, Mike Tresor, Hannibal Mejbri, Jordan BeyerBurnleyOut
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 63.7% | Over 7.5 | 50.5% | Over 8.5 | 37.9% | Over 9.5 | 26.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: West Brom | 52.9% | Most: Burnley | 33.9% | ||||
| West Brom Over 4.2 | 41.7% | Burnley Over 4.2 | 28.4% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 69.2% | Over 3.5 | 47.9% | Over 4.5 | 28.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: West Brom | 32.2% | Most: Burnley | 46.0% | ||
| West Brom Over 1.8 | 48.0% | Burnley Over 1.8 | 58.2% |
Burnley: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zian Flemming | 2.61 | 1.05 | 0.55 | 51.4% | 53.6% | 31.5% |
| Jaidon Anthony | 1.78 | 0.75 | 0.26 | 46.5% | 43.7% | 19.5% |
| Loum Tchaouna | 1.63 | 0.57 | 0.14 | 24.2% | 18.8% | 6.6% |
| Armando Broja | 1.75 | 0.55 | 0.11 | 18.9% | 14.4% | 4.1% |
| Marcus Edwards | 1.96 | 0.43 | 0.09 | 19.7% | 26.4% | 4.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| West Brom clean sheet | 42.3% |
|---|---|
| Burnley clean sheet | 20.9% |
| West Brom win to nil | 32.8% |
| Burnley win to nil | 11.4% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 53.6% | draw | 26.6% | away | 19.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 80.1% | 12 | 73.4% | X2 | 46.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 72.9% | away | 27.1% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 46.1% | no | 53.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 42.5% | away | 20.9% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 33.1% | away | 11.4% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 24.9% | home_by_2 | 16.7% | home_by_3plus | 12.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 13.3% | away_by_2 | 5.0% | away_by_3plus | 1.6% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 9.5% | 0-1 | 7.0% | 0-2 | 3.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.9% | 0-4 | 0.2% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 13.3% | 1-1 | 12.5% | 1-2 | 5.1% |
| 1-3 | 1.5% | 1-4 | 0.3% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 10.9% | 2-1 | 9.3% | 2-2 | 4.0% |
| 2-3 | 1.1% | 2-4 | 0.2% | 2-5 | 0.0% |
| 3-0 | 5.7% | 3-1 | 4.9% | 3-2 | 2.1% |
| 3-3 | 0.6% | 3-4 | 0.1% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 2.2% | 4-1 | 1.9% | 4-2 | 0.8% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.7% | 5-1 | 0.6% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.6% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 13.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 90.5% | under_0.5 | 9.5% | over_1.5 | 70.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 29.7% | over_2.5 | 43.6% | under_2.5 | 56.4% |
| over_3.5 | 22.6% | under_3.5 | 77.4% | over_4.5 | 9.9% |
| under_4.5 | 90.1% | over_5.5 | 3.7% | under_5.5 | 96.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.4% | even | 51.6% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 79.1% | under_0.5 | 20.9% | over_1.5 | 46.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 53.5% | over_2.5 | 20.9% | under_2.5 | 79.1% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 57.5% | under_0.5 | 42.5% | over_1.5 | 21.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 78.9% | over_2.5 | 5.6% | under_2.5 | 94.4% |
most
| home | 53.6% | draw | 26.6% | away | 19.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 12.0% | away_+2.5 | 88.0% | home_-1.5 | 28.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 71.4% | home_-0.5 | 53.6% | away_+0.5 | 46.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 80.1% | away_-0.5 | 19.9% | home_+1.5 | 93.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 6.6% | home_+2.5 | 98.4% | away_-2.5 | 1.6% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 9.5% | exact_1 | 20.3% | exact_2 | 26.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.0% | exact_4 | 12.7% | exact_5 | 6.2% |
| exact_6 | 2.5% | exact_7plus | 1.2% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 25.7% | draw | 44.9% | away | 29.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 65.5% | under_0.5 | 34.5% | over_1.5 | 28.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 71.2% | over_2.5 | 9.3% | under_2.5 | 90.7% |
btts
| yes | 17.0% | no | 83.0% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 34.5% | exact_1 | 36.7% | exact_2 | 19.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 6.9% | exact_4plus | 2.3% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 20.8% | draw | 42.8% | away | 36.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 67.9% | under_0.5 | 32.1% | over_1.5 | 31.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.6% | over_2.5 | 10.7% | under_2.5 | 89.3% |
btts
| yes | 18.0% | no | 82.0% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 17.9% | H/D | 5.6% | H/A | 2.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 9.4% | D/D | 19.2% | D/A | 16.4% |
| A/H | 1.0% | A/D | 3.9% | A/A | 24.5% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 77.1% | under_7.5 | 22.9% | over_8.5 | 66.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 33.6% | over_9.5 | 54.6% | under_9.5 | 45.4% |
| over_10.5 | 42.9% | under_10.5 | 57.1% | over_11.5 | 32.1% |
| under_11.5 | 67.9% | over_12.5 | 23.0% | under_12.5 | 77.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 79.0% | under_3.5 | 21.0% | over_4.5 | 65.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 34.8% | over_5.5 | 50.2% | under_5.5 | 49.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 60.2% | under_3.5 | 39.8% | over_4.5 | 42.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 57.2% | over_5.5 | 27.9% | under_5.5 | 72.1% |
most
| home | 59.8% | draw | 10.1% | away | 30.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 28.7% | away_+3.5 | 71.4% | home_-1.5 | 49.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 51.0% | home_-0.5 | 59.8% | away_+0.5 | 40.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 69.9% | away_-0.5 | 30.1% | home_+1.5 | 78.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 21.3% | home_+3.5 | 91.0% | away_-3.5 | 9.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 59.7% | under_22.5 | 40.3% | over_24.5 | 47.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 52.9% | over_26.5 | 35.0% | under_26.5 | 65.0% |
| over_28.5 | 24.6% | under_28.5 | 75.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 73.2% | under_10.5 | 26.8% | over_12.5 | 57.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 42.9% | over_14.5 | 40.7% | under_14.5 | 59.3% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 48.4% | under_10.5 | 51.6% | over_12.5 | 30.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 69.4% | over_14.5 | 17.4% | under_14.5 | 82.6% |
most
| home | 65.3% | draw | 5.8% | away | 28.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 40.1% | away_+4.5 | 59.9% | home_-2.5 | 52.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 47.2% | home_-0.5 | 65.3% | away_+0.5 | 34.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.1% | away_-0.5 | 28.9% | home_+2.5 | 81.0% |
| away_-2.5 | 19.0% | home_+4.5 | 88.5% | away_-4.5 | 11.5% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 63.7% | under_6.5 | 36.3% | over_7.5 | 50.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 49.5% | over_8.5 | 37.9% | under_8.5 | 62.1% |
| over_9.5 | 26.9% | under_9.5 | 73.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 59.3% | under_3.5 | 40.7% | over_4.5 | 41.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.3% | over_5.5 | 26.8% | under_5.5 | 73.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 45.7% | under_3.5 | 54.3% | over_4.5 | 28.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 71.6% | over_5.5 | 16.0% | under_5.5 | 84.0% |
most
| home | 52.9% | draw | 13.2% | away | 33.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 27.5% | away_+2.5 | 72.5% | home_-0.5 | 52.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 47.1% | home_+0.5 | 66.1% | away_-0.5 | 33.9% |
| home_+2.5 | 86.2% | away_-2.5 | 13.8% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 69.2% | under_2.5 | 30.8% | over_3.5 | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 52.1% | over_4.5 | 28.8% | under_4.5 | 71.2% |
| over_5.5 | 15.2% | under_5.5 | 84.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 48.0% | under_1.5 | 52.0% | over_2.5 | 22.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 77.9% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 58.2% | under_1.5 | 41.8% | over_2.5 | 31.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 68.8% |
most
| home | 32.2% | draw | 21.7% | away | 46.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 15.6% | away_+1.5 | 84.4% | home_-0.5 | 32.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 67.8% | home_+0.5 | 53.9% | away_-0.5 | 46.1% |
| home_+1.5 | 74.1% | away_-1.5 | 25.9% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 57.9% | under_20.5 | 42.2% | over_22.5 | 42.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 57.9% | over_24.5 | 28.0% | under_24.5 | 72.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 55.9% | under_9.5 | 44.1% | over_11.5 | 33.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 66.4% | over_13.5 | 16.9% | under_13.5 | 83.1% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 68.9% | under_9.5 | 31.1% | over_11.5 | 47.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 52.6% | over_13.5 | 27.8% | under_13.5 | 72.2% |
most
| home | 36.4% | draw | 7.8% | away | 55.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 17.1% | away_+3.5 | 82.9% | home_-0.5 | 36.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 63.6% | home_+2.5 | 60.0% | away_-2.5 | 40.0% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 10.5% | no | 89.5% |
|---|
home
| yes | 7.4% | no | 92.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 3.4% | no | 96.6% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: West Brom predictions · Burnley predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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