Segunda DivisiónCelta B vs Eibar Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 73.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 87.8% for over 2.5 to 39.0% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.5%. Head to head on cards, Eibar are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.1%, with a level count at 18.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 87.8% | 12.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 73.9% | 26.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 39.0% | 61.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
69.6%
43.6%
73.4%
48.4%
Card handicap
| Celta B line | Celta B | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.9% | 78.1% |
| -0.5 | 37.6% | 62.4% |
| +0.5 | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| +1.5 | 72.8% | 27.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 81.9% | 18.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| 24.5 fouls | 58.1% | 41.9% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Celta B vs Eibar. It tips Eibar for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
73.9%Over 3.5 cards23.1%Any red card69.6%Celta B over 1.5 cards73.4%Eibar over 1.5 cards71.0%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Celta B over 1.5 cards sits at 69.6% and Eibar at 73.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 23.1% (Celta B 7.1%, Eibar 17.2%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Celta B vs Eibar?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 73.9% for Celta B vs Eibar.
Will there be a red card in Celta B vs Eibar?
The model rates a red card for either side at 23.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Celta B vs Eibar?
The model rates Eibar to pick up more cards at 44.1%, with a level count at 18.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Segunda División, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.