Sp Gijon vs Burgos: model prediction
Segunda DivisiónSp Gijon or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Sp Gijon at 40.0%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 63.2% and it landed (1 goals). We called No at 56.0% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The probabilities barely separate Sp Gijon and Burgos on 23 August 2026: Sp Gijon nose ahead at 40%. Notably, the model is warmer on Sp Gijon than the market (36%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 37% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 44%. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Sp Gijon, 0 draws and 3 for Burgos at 2.2 goals per match. Recent form reads W3 D1 L2 for Sp Gijon against W4 D2 L0 for Burgos. Discipline says sit it out: conservative EV -0.025 <= 0.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
40.0%+3.5%
30.5%-2.3%
29.5%-1.2%
conservative EV -0.025 <= 0
Goals markets
Strong chance
Toss-up
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Sp Gijon 2 · 0 draws · Burgos 3 · 2.2 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 69.0% | Over 7.5 | 55.7% | Over 8.5 | 42.3% | Over 9.5 | 30.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Sp Gijon | 61.5% | Most: Burgos | 26.0% | ||||
| Sp Gijon Over 4.2 | 50.8% | Burgos Over 4.2 | 25.3% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 88.5% | Over 3.5 | 75.0% | Over 4.5 | 57.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Sp Gijon | 39.0% | Most: Burgos | 42.8% | ||
| Sp Gijon Over 1.8 | 71.3% | Burgos Over 1.8 | 73.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Sp Gijon clean sheet | 37.5% |
|---|---|
| Burgos clean sheet | 30.6% |
| Sp Gijon win to nil | 25.4% |
| Burgos win to nil | 18.4% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 40.0% | draw | 30.5% | away | 29.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 70.5% | 12 | 69.5% | X2 | 60.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 57.5% | away | 42.5% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 44.0% | no | 56.0% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 37.6% | away | 30.6% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 25.4% | away | 18.4% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.5% | home_by_2 | 11.7% | home_by_3plus | 5.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 18.5% | away_by_2 | 8.0% | away_by_3plus | 3.1% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 12.1% | 0-1 | 10.6% | 0-2 | 5.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.8% | 0-4 | 0.4% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 12.9% | 1-1 | 14.0% | 1-2 | 6.5% |
| 1-3 | 2.1% | 1-4 | 0.5% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 8.1% | 2-1 | 7.9% | 2-2 | 3.9% |
| 2-3 | 1.3% | 2-4 | 0.3% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 3.2% | 3-1 | 3.1% | 3-2 | 1.5% |
| 3-3 | 0.5% | 3-4 | 0.1% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 1.0% | 4-1 | 0.9% | 4-2 | 0.5% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.0% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.0% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.2% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 14.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 87.9% | under_0.5 | 12.1% | over_1.5 | 64.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 35.6% | over_2.5 | 36.8% | under_2.5 | 63.2% |
| over_3.5 | 17.4% | under_3.5 | 82.6% | over_4.5 | 6.9% |
| under_4.5 | 93.1% | over_5.5 | 2.3% | under_5.5 | 97.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.0% | even | 52.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 69.4% | under_0.5 | 30.6% | over_1.5 | 33.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 66.8% | over_2.5 | 11.8% | under_2.5 | 88.2% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 62.5% | under_0.5 | 37.6% | over_1.5 | 25.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 74.3% | over_2.5 | 7.7% | under_2.5 | 92.3% |
most
| home | 40.0% | draw | 30.5% | away | 29.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 5.8% | away_+2.5 | 94.2% | home_-1.5 | 17.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 82.5% | home_-0.5 | 40.0% | away_+0.5 | 60.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.5% | away_-0.5 | 29.5% | home_+1.5 | 89.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 11.0% | home_+2.5 | 96.9% | away_-2.5 | 3.1% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 12.1% | exact_1 | 23.5% | exact_2 | 27.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 19.4% | exact_4 | 10.5% | exact_5 | 4.6% |
| exact_6 | 1.7% | exact_7plus | 0.7% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 30.5% | draw | 44.6% | away | 24.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 66.0% | under_0.5 | 34.0% | over_1.5 | 29.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.7% | over_2.5 | 9.5% | under_2.5 | 90.5% |
btts
| yes | 17.3% | no | 82.7% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 34.0% | exact_1 | 36.7% | exact_2 | 19.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.1% | exact_4plus | 2.4% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 29.2% | draw | 45.4% | away | 25.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 64.9% | under_0.5 | 35.1% | over_1.5 | 28.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 71.9% | over_2.5 | 8.9% | under_2.5 | 91.1% |
btts
| yes | 16.5% | no | 83.5% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 24.3% | H/D | 4.8% | H/A | 1.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 13.0% | D/D | 20.2% | D/A | 11.3% |
| A/H | 1.4% | A/D | 4.6% | A/A | 18.9% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 69.7% | under_7.5 | 30.3% | over_8.5 | 57.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 42.5% | over_9.5 | 45.1% | under_9.5 | 54.9% |
| over_10.5 | 33.5% | under_10.5 | 66.5% | over_11.5 | 23.7% |
| under_11.5 | 76.3% | over_12.5 | 15.9% | under_12.5 | 84.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 72.1% | under_3.5 | 27.9% | over_4.5 | 56.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 43.7% | over_5.5 | 40.8% | under_5.5 | 59.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.5% | under_3.5 | 42.5% | over_4.5 | 39.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.1% | over_5.5 | 25.4% | under_5.5 | 74.6% |
most
| home | 55.2% | draw | 11.0% | away | 33.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 23.6% | away_+3.5 | 76.4% | home_-1.5 | 43.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 56.1% | home_-0.5 | 55.2% | away_+0.5 | 44.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.2% | away_-0.5 | 33.8% | home_+1.5 | 76.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 24.0% | home_+3.5 | 89.9% | away_-3.5 | 10.2% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 59.0% | under_22.5 | 41.0% | over_24.5 | 45.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 54.1% | over_26.5 | 33.6% | under_26.5 | 66.4% |
| over_28.5 | 23.1% | under_28.5 | 76.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 72.1% | under_10.5 | 27.9% | over_12.5 | 55.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 44.9% | over_14.5 | 38.2% | under_14.5 | 61.8% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 49.5% | under_10.5 | 50.5% | over_12.5 | 31.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 68.8% | over_14.5 | 17.5% | under_14.5 | 82.6% |
most
| home | 63.6% | draw | 6.1% | away | 30.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 37.5% | away_+4.5 | 62.5% | home_-2.5 | 50.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 49.5% | home_-0.5 | 63.6% | away_+0.5 | 36.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 69.6% | away_-0.5 | 30.4% | home_+2.5 | 80.2% |
| away_-2.5 | 19.9% | home_+4.5 | 88.1% | away_-4.5 | 11.9% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 69.0% | under_6.5 | 31.0% | over_7.5 | 55.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 44.3% | over_8.5 | 42.3% | under_8.5 | 57.8% |
| over_9.5 | 30.2% | under_9.5 | 69.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 68.6% | under_3.5 | 31.5% | over_4.5 | 50.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 49.2% | over_5.5 | 34.2% | under_5.5 | 65.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 43.1% | under_3.5 | 56.9% | over_4.5 | 25.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 74.7% | over_5.5 | 13.2% | under_5.5 | 86.8% |
most
| home | 61.5% | draw | 12.5% | away | 26.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 34.5% | away_+2.5 | 65.5% | home_-0.5 | 61.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 38.5% | home_+0.5 | 74.0% | away_-0.5 | 26.0% |
| home_+2.5 | 91.0% | away_-2.5 | 9.0% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 88.4% | under_2.5 | 11.6% | over_3.5 | 75.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 25.0% | over_4.5 | 57.9% | under_4.5 | 42.1% |
| over_5.5 | 40.4% | under_5.5 | 59.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 71.3% | under_1.5 | 28.7% | over_2.5 | 45.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 54.4% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 73.5% | under_1.5 | 26.5% | over_2.5 | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 51.6% |
most
| home | 39.0% | draw | 18.1% | away | 42.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 23.2% | away_+1.5 | 76.9% | home_-0.5 | 39.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 61.0% | home_+0.5 | 57.2% | away_-0.5 | 42.9% |
| home_+1.5 | 73.7% | away_-1.5 | 26.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 76.0% | under_20.5 | 24.0% | over_22.5 | 63.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 36.7% | over_24.5 | 49.5% | under_24.5 | 50.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 79.9% | under_9.5 | 20.1% | over_11.5 | 62.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 37.3% | over_13.5 | 43.9% | under_13.5 | 56.2% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 68.4% | under_9.5 | 31.6% | over_11.5 | 48.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 51.9% | over_13.5 | 29.5% | under_13.5 | 70.5% |
most
| home | 57.0% | draw | 6.8% | away | 36.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 36.3% | away_+3.5 | 63.7% | home_-0.5 | 57.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 43.0% | home_+2.5 | 75.9% | away_-2.5 | 24.1% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 13.3% | no | 86.7% |
|---|
home
| yes | 7.7% | no | 92.3% |
|---|
away
| yes | 6.0% | no | 94.0% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Sp Gijon predictions · Burgos predictions · Segunda División
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
Explore this match
Markets