Eredivisie
Telstar vs 
Ajax Cards
Result
We called Under 3.5 at 61.0% and it landed (0 in the match). We called No at 85.6% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 39.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 61.0% for over 2.5 to 10.5% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 61.0%. Head to head on cards, Ajax are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 52.2%, with a level count at 22.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 39.0% | 61.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 21.6% | 78.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 10.5% | 89.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
35.9%
13.7%
56.3%
29.8%
Card handicap
| Telstar line | Telstar | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10.7% | 89.3% |
| -0.5 | 25.6% | 74.4% |
| +0.5 | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| +1.5 | 69.9% | 30.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 27.8% | 72.2% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Telstar vs Ajax. It tips Ajax for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
39.0%Over 3.5 cards14.5%Any red card35.9%Telstar over 1.5 cards56.3%Ajax over 1.5 cards41.5%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Telstar over 1.5 cards sits at 35.9% and Ajax at 56.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.5% (Telstar 7.4%, Ajax 7.6%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Telstar vs Ajax?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 39.0% for Telstar vs Ajax.
Will there be a red card in Telstar vs Ajax?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Telstar vs Ajax?
Before kickoff, the model rated Ajax to pick up more cards at 52.2%, with a level count at 22.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 7,309 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.