Willem II vs Heerenveen prediction & probabilities (2026-08-30)

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Willem II vs Heerenveen: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 29 Aug 2026

Eredivisie
Willem II

LLDLL

Full time2-2Sun, 30 Aug 202613:30UK
Heerenveen

LDWDL

Model’s top convictions

81%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Draw or Heerenveen

64%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time9 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Willem II 2-2 Heerenveen
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
9 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Heerenveen at 44.3%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 58.8% and it landed (4 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 81.4% and it landed (4 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 63.5% and it missed (4 goals). We called Yes at 61.3% and it landed. We called Yes at 73.4% and it missed. We called Yes at 83.5% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 56.4% and it landed (16 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 69.0% and it landed (0 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 64.4% and it landed (25 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 76.2% and it landed (10 shots on target). We called No at 92.5% and it landed.

Match data Willem II Heerenveen
Goals, 1st half 0 0
Goals, 2nd half 2 2
Shots 12 13
Shots on target 5 5
Corners 9 7
Yellow cards 0 0
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 9 5

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
HeerenveenWin probability
44.3%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals81.4%High probabilityPays @ 1.23
Draw or Heerenveen69.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.45
Over 8.5 corners63.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.57

Model read

▾

Our engine prices Heerenveen at 44% for 30 August 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. The numbers that frame it: • Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Heerenveen higher (55%) than our model does. • No strong lean on goals (59% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • Schedule edge: Willem II have had 7 more days of rest than Heerenveen. As a promoted side, Willem II carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. • Form guide over the last six: Willem II W0 D2 L4, Heerenveen W2 D2 L2. The recent series reads 1 wins for Willem II, 1 draws and 3 for Heerenveen over 5 games, 2.8 goals on average. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.23)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Heerenveen win44.3%@ 2.26
Over 10.5 corners44.1%@ 2.27
Over 11.5 corners35.1%@ 2.85
Medium risk

Both teams to score61.3%@ 1.63
Over 2.5 goals58.8%@ 1.70
Willem II or draw55.6%@ 1.80
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.4%@ 8.75
1-2 correct score9.2%@ 10.93
2-1 correct score7.5%@ 13.40

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Willem II

30.8%+7.4%

Draw

24.8%+3.3%

Heerenveen

44.3%-10.8%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.23)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.581.4%

High probability

Over 2.558.8%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes61.3%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.563.7%

Strong chance

Over 9.553.8%

Good chance

Over 10.544.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.535.1%

Toss-up

Most cornersWillem II52.5%Heerenveen37.5%

Shots markets

Over 22.574.5%

Strong chance

Over 24.564.4%

Strong chance

Over 26.553.6%

Good chance

Over 28.542.7%

Reasonable chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.581.4%2.558.8%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.581.4%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

Willem IILLDLL
HeerenveenLDWDL

Last 5 meetings: Willem II 1 · 1 draws · Heerenveen 3 · 2.8 goals/game.

2025-04-04Heerenveen 3-1 Willem II
2024-12-08Willem II 1-2 Heerenveen
2022-03-05Willem II 0-0 Heerenveen
2021-11-21Heerenveen 2-1 Willem II
2021-03-13Willem II 3-1 Heerenveen

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Willem IIHeerenveen
League position#16 of 18#9 of 18
Record W-D-L0-0-21-1-1
Current streakL2L1
Record, home vs away0-0-10-1-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.75 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 75% · BTTS in 71%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Willem II win4.003.25
Draw4.334.03
Heerenveen win1.752.26
Over 2.5 goals1.441.70
Under 2.5 goals2.702.43

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Willem II win3.25
Draw4.03
Heerenveen win2.25
Both teams to score1.63

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.23
Over 2.5 goals1.70
Over 3.5 goals2.74
Willem II most3.25
Heerenveen most2.25

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.28
Over 8.5 corners1.47
Over 9.5 corners1.77
Over 10.5 corners2.23
Willem II most1.90
Heerenveen most2.66

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.89
Over 3.5 cards3.23
Over 4.5 cards6.43
Over 5.5 cards14.68
Willem II most3.16
Heerenveen most2.30

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.18
Over 7.5 SoT1.31
Over 8.5 SoT1.51
Over 9.5 SoT1.80
Willem II most2.09
Heerenveen most2.43

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.34
Over 24.5 shots1.55
Over 26.5 shots1.86
Over 28.5 shots2.34
Willem II most1.79
Heerenveen most2.59

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.15
Over 22.5 fouls3.16
Over 24.5 fouls5.09
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 84.6% Over 7.5 76.2% Over 8.5 66.3% Over 9.5 55.6%
Most: Willem II 47.9% Most: Heerenveen 41.2%
Willem II Over 4.2 57.8% Heerenveen Over 4.2 53.2%

Cards

Over 2.5 52.9% Over 3.5 31.0% Over 4.5 15.6%
Most: Willem II 31.6% Most: Heerenveen 43.5%
Willem II Over 1.8 36.1% Heerenveen Over 1.8 45.1%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Willem II clean sheet 18.6%
Heerenveen clean sheet 25.2%
Willem II win to nil 13.3%
Heerenveen win to nil 19.9%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 30.8% draw 24.8% away 44.4%
double_chance
1X 55.7% 12 75.2% X2 69.2%
dnb
home 41.0% away 59.0%
btts
yes 61.3% no 38.7%
clean_sheet
home 18.6% away 25.4%
win_to_nil
home 13.3% away 20.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 16.9% home_by_2 9.0% home_by_3plus 4.9%
away_by_1 20.8% away_by_2 13.5% away_by_3plus 10.0%
correct_score
0-0 5.3% 0-1 7.4% 0-2 6.7%
0-3 3.7% 0-4 1.6% 0-5 0.5%
1-0 5.9% 1-1 11.4% 1-2 9.2%
1-3 5.1% 1-4 2.2% 1-5 0.7%
2-0 4.4% 2-1 7.5% 2-2 6.3%
2-3 3.5% 2-4 1.5% 2-5 0.5%
3-0 2.0% 3-1 3.4% 3-2 2.9%
3-3 1.6% 3-4 0.7% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 0.7% 4-1 1.2% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.1%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.7% under_0.5 5.3% over_1.5 81.4%
under_1.5 18.6% over_2.5 58.8% under_2.5 41.2%
over_3.5 36.5% under_3.5 63.5% over_4.5 19.4%
under_4.5 80.6% over_5.5 8.9% under_5.5 91.1%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 74.6% under_0.5 25.4% over_1.5 39.8%
under_1.5 60.2% over_2.5 15.9% under_2.5 84.1%
team_away
over_0.5 81.4% under_0.5 18.6% over_1.5 50.1%
under_1.5 49.9% over_2.5 23.8% under_2.5 76.2%
most
home 30.8% draw 24.8% away 44.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 4.9% away_+2.5 95.1% home_-1.5 13.9%
away_+1.5 86.1% home_-0.5 30.8% away_+0.5 69.2%
home_+0.5 55.7% away_-0.5 44.4% home_+1.5 76.5%
away_-1.5 23.5% home_+2.5 90.0% away_-2.5 10.0%
total_exact
exact_0 5.3% exact_1 13.3% exact_2 22.6%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 17.1% exact_5 10.4%
exact_6 5.3% exact_7plus 3.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.5% draw 39.6% away 28.9%
total
over_0.5 73.4% under_0.5 26.6% over_1.5 38.2%
under_1.5 61.8% over_2.5 14.9% under_2.5 85.1%
btts
yes 23.5% no 76.5%
total_exact
exact_0 26.6% exact_1 35.2% exact_2 23.3%
exact_3 10.3% exact_4plus 4.6%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 23.0% draw 31.9% away 45.1%
total
over_0.5 83.5% under_0.5 16.5% over_1.5 53.8%
under_1.5 46.3% over_2.5 27.0% under_2.5 73.0%
btts
yes 33.6% no 66.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 19.9% H/D 6.9% H/A 4.7%
D/H 9.1% D/D 12.6% D/A 17.8%
A/H 1.5% A/D 3.8% A/A 23.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 78.3% under_7.5 21.8% over_8.5 67.9%
under_8.5 32.1% over_9.5 56.4% under_9.5 43.6%
over_10.5 44.8% under_10.5 55.2% over_11.5 34.1%
under_11.5 65.9% over_12.5 24.8% under_12.5 75.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.0% under_3.5 25.0% over_4.5 60.8%
under_4.5 39.2% over_5.5 46.3% under_5.5 53.8%
team_away
over_3.5 65.4% under_3.5 34.6% over_4.5 49.3%
under_4.5 50.7% over_5.5 34.7% under_5.5 65.3%
most
home 52.6% draw 9.8% away 37.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.8% away_+3.5 75.2% home_-1.5 42.7%
away_+1.5 57.3% home_-0.5 52.6% away_+0.5 47.4%
home_+0.5 62.4% away_-0.5 37.6% home_+1.5 71.5%
away_-1.5 28.5% home_+3.5 85.7% away_-3.5 14.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 74.5% under_22.5 25.6% over_24.5 64.4%
under_24.5 35.6% over_26.5 53.6% under_26.5 46.4%
over_28.5 42.7% under_28.5 57.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 76.5% under_10.5 23.5% over_12.5 62.7%
under_12.5 37.3% over_14.5 48.0% under_14.5 52.0%
team_away
over_10.5 66.3% under_10.5 33.8% over_12.5 50.5%
under_12.5 49.5% over_14.5 35.7% under_14.5 64.3%
most
home 55.9% draw 5.4% away 38.7%
handicap
home_-4.5 34.1% away_+4.5 65.9% home_-2.5 44.9%
away_+2.5 55.2% home_-0.5 55.9% away_+0.5 44.1%
home_+0.5 61.4% away_-0.5 38.7% home_+2.5 71.5%
away_-2.5 28.5% home_+4.5 80.1% away_-4.5 19.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 84.6% under_6.5 15.4% over_7.5 76.2%
under_7.5 23.8% over_8.5 66.3% under_8.5 33.7%
over_9.5 55.6% under_9.5 44.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.8% under_3.5 27.2% over_4.5 57.8%
under_4.5 42.2% over_5.5 43.1% under_5.5 57.0%
team_away
over_3.5 68.9% under_3.5 31.1% over_4.5 53.2%
under_4.5 46.8% over_5.5 38.3% under_5.5 61.7%
most
home 47.9% draw 10.9% away 41.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 27.5% away_+2.5 72.5% home_-0.5 47.9%
away_+0.5 52.1% home_+0.5 58.8% away_-0.5 41.2%
home_+2.5 77.9% away_-2.5 22.1%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 52.9% under_2.5 47.1% over_3.5 31.0%
under_3.5 69.0% over_4.5 15.6% under_4.5 84.5%
over_5.5 6.8% under_5.5 93.2%
odd_even
odd 49.8% even 50.2%
team_home
over_1.5 36.1% under_1.5 63.9% over_2.5 13.8%
under_2.5 86.2%
team_away
over_1.5 45.1% under_1.5 54.9% over_2.5 20.2%
under_2.5 79.8%
most
home 31.6% draw 24.9% away 43.5%
handicap
home_-1.5 13.7% away_+1.5 86.3% home_-0.5 31.6%
away_+0.5 68.4% home_+0.5 56.5% away_-0.5 43.5%
home_+1.5 78.1% away_-1.5 21.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 46.6% under_20.5 53.4% over_22.5 31.7%
under_22.5 68.4% over_24.5 19.6% under_24.5 80.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 48.0% under_9.5 52.0% over_11.5 26.9%
under_11.5 73.1% over_13.5 12.7% under_13.5 87.3%
team_away
over_9.5 61.0% under_9.5 39.0% over_11.5 39.3%
under_11.5 60.7% over_13.5 21.6% under_13.5 78.4%
most
home 36.8% draw 7.9% away 55.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 17.2% away_+3.5 82.8% home_-0.5 36.8%
away_+0.5 63.2% home_+2.5 60.8% away_-2.5 39.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 7.5% no 92.5%
home
yes 4.8% no 95.2%
away
yes 2.8% no 97.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Willem II predictions · Heerenveen predictions · Eredivisie

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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EredivisieWillem IIHeerenveenTrack record