Eredivisie
Telstar vs ADO Den Haag Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 2.5 goals at 59.6%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. That fits an open goals environment: 59.6% for over 2.5 and 81.9% for at least two goals. Telstar have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 94.9% | 5.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 81.9% | 18.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 59.7% | 40.4% |
| 3.5 goals | 37.3% | 62.7% |
| 4.5 goals | 20.0% | 80.0% |
| 5.5 goals | 9.3% | 90.7% |
Team goal lines
83.3%
53.3%
26.6%
72.8%
37.4%
14.4%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 68.1% | 31.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 31.7% | 68.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 10.9% | 89.1% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 85.0% | 15.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 29.6% | 70.4% |
This season (2026/27)
0.8Telstar goals scored per game1.8Telstar goals conceded per game66.7%Telstar Over 2.5 rate0.3Telstar 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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1
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5+
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
61.1%Both Teams to Score59.6%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 59.6% for three or more goals and 81.9% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Telstar favoured at 48.3%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Telstar to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Telstar vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 59.6% for Telstar vs ADO Den Haag.
Will there be a first-half goal in Telstar vs ADO Den Haag?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 68.1%.
How often have Telstar gone over 2.5 recently?
Telstar have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 18,270 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 54.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Eredivisie, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
