Eredivisie
Telstar vs ADO Den Haag Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 62.4%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 72.8% for over 22.5 to 40.4% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.4%. On the shot count, Telstar are the model’s pick to have more shots at 55.7%, with a level count at 5.5%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 72.8% | 27.2% |
| 24.5 shots | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| 26.5 shots | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| 28.5 shots | 40.4% | 59.6% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
75.3%
61.1%
46.2%
65.1%
49.1%
34.2%
Shot handicap
| Telstar line | Telstar | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 33.7% | 66.4% |
| -2.5 | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| -0.5 | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| +0.5 | 61.2% | 38.8% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 84.8% | 15.2% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 76.3% | 23.7% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 66.3% | 33.7% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 55.6% | 44.4% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
8.7Telstar shots per game18.0Telstar shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Telstar.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
62.4%Over 24.5 shots61.1%Telstar over 12.5 shots49.1%ADO Den Haag over 12.5 shots76.3%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Telstar over 12.5 shots sits at 61.1% and ADO Den Haag at 49.1%.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Telstar vs ADO Den Haag?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 62.4% for Telstar vs ADO Den Haag.
Which team will have more shots in Telstar vs ADO Den Haag?
The model rates Telstar to take more shots at 55.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 2,757 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Eredivisie, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
