Pro League
St Truiden vs 
RAAL La Louviere Cards
Result
We called Under 3.5 at 53.5% and it landed (3 in the match). We called No at 77.7% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 46.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 67.7% for over 2.5 to 14.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.5%. Head to head on cards, RAAL La Louviere are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 51.4%, with a level count at 21.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| 3.5 cards | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 27.9% | 72.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 14.7% | 85.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
42.5%
18.2%
60.5%
33.9%
Card handicap
| St Truiden line | St Truiden | RAAL La Louviere |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12.4% | 87.6% |
| -0.5 | 27.4% | 72.6% |
| +0.5 | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| +1.5 | 69.6% | 30.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 40.8% | 59.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 27.7% | 72.3% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for St Truiden vs RAAL La Louviere. It tips RAAL La Louviere for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
46.5%Over 3.5 cards22.3%Any red card42.5%St Truiden over 1.5 cards60.5%RAAL La Louviere over 1.5 cards40.8%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, St Truiden over 1.5 cards sits at 42.5% and RAAL La Louviere at 60.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 22.3% (St Truiden 4.4%, RAAL La Louviere 18.8%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in St Truiden vs RAAL La Louviere?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 46.5% for St Truiden vs RAAL La Louviere.
Will there be a red card in St Truiden vs RAAL La Louviere?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 22.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in St Truiden vs RAAL La Louviere?
Before kickoff, the model rated RAAL La Louviere to pick up more cards at 51.4%, with a level count at 21.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Pro League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.