Premier League
Spurs vs 
Newcastle Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 50.6%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 62.2% for over 22.5 to 29.0% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.6%. On the shot count, Spurs are the model’s pick to have more shots at 59.6%, with a level count at 5.6%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 62.2% | 37.8% |
| 24.5 shots | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| 26.5 shots | 39.3% | 60.7% |
| 28.5 shots | 29.0% | 71.0% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
70.7%
55.4%
40.3%
54.2%
37.5%
23.9%
Shot handicap
| Spurs line | Spurs | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 36.3% | 63.7% |
| -2.5 | 47.9% | 52.2% |
| -0.5 | 59.6% | 40.4% |
| +0.5 | 65.2% | 34.8% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 71.4% | 28.6% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 59.6% | 40.4% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 36.3% | 63.7% |
Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Spurs.
In-depth analysis
50.6%Over 24.5 shots55.4%Spurs over 12.5 shots37.5%Newcastle over 12.5 shots59.6%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Spurs over 12.5 shots sits at 55.4% and Newcastle at 37.5%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Spurs vs Newcastle?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 50.6% for Spurs vs Newcastle.
Which team will have more shots in Spurs vs Newcastle?
The model rates Spurs to take more shots at 59.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.