Premier League
Spurs vs 
Newcastle Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 11.9% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. That fits an open goals environment: 55.7% for over 2.5 and 79.3% for at least two goals. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% |
| 0-1 | 8.2% |
| 2-1 | 7.4% |
| 0-2 | 7.1% |
| 1-0 | 6.5% |
| 0-0 | 6.0% |
| 2-2 | 6.0% |
Score probability grid
| Spurs \ Newcastle | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| 1 | 6% | 12% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 2 | 5% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% | · |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Spurs goals, columns = Newcastle. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11.9%. Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. Read the heatmap as a map of likelihood, not a prediction of one score.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
58.8%Both Teams to Score55.7%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 55.7% for three or more goals and 79.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Newcastle favoured at 46.5%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Spurs vs Newcastle?
The model's most likely scoreline for Spurs vs Newcastle is 1-1 at 11.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Premier League, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.