Primeira Liga
Sp Braga vs 
Guimaraes Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 73.8% and it landed (5 in the match). We called No at 87.0% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 73.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 87.7% for over 2.5 to 38.8% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.3%. On the card count, Guimaraes are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.4%, with a level count at 18.3%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 87.7% | 12.3% |
| 3.5 cards | 73.8% | 26.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 38.8% | 61.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
69.3%
43.2%
73.5%
48.4%
Card handicap
| Sp Braga line | Sp Braga | Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.7% | 78.3% |
| -0.5 | 37.4% | 62.6% |
| +0.5 | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| +1.5 | 72.6% | 27.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 83.1% | 16.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 72.9% | 27.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 60.7% | 39.3% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sp Braga vs Guimaraes. It tips Guimaraes for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
73.8%Over 3.5 cards13.0%Any red card69.3%Sp Braga over 1.5 cards73.5%Guimaraes over 1.5 cards72.9%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Sp Braga over 1.5 cards sits at 69.3% and Guimaraes at 73.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.0% (Sp Braga 8.6%, Guimaraes 4.9%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Sp Braga vs Guimaraes?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 73.8% for Sp Braga vs Guimaraes.
Will there be a red card in Sp Braga vs Guimaraes?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 13.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sp Braga vs Guimaraes?
Before kickoff, the model rated Guimaraes to pick up more cards at 44.4%, with a level count at 18.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.