Championship
Southampton vs Stoke Cards
Result
Settled, final score 3-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 55.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 75.5% for over 2.5 to 20.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.8%. On the card count, Stoke are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 52.7%, with a level count at 19.9%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 75.5% | 24.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 55.8% | 44.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 36.2% | 63.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 20.8% | 79.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
49.0%
22.9%
67.1%
40.6%
Card handicap
| Southampton line | Southampton | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13.1% | 87.0% |
| -0.5 | 27.5% | 72.5% |
| +0.5 | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| +1.5 | 67.6% | 32.5% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 26.3% | 73.7% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Southampton vs Stoke. It tips Stoke for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
55.8%Over 3.5 cards8.6%Any red card49.0%Southampton over 1.5 cards67.1%Stoke over 1.5 cards40.2%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Southampton over 1.5 cards sits at 49.0% and Stoke at 67.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.6% (Southampton 0.8%, Stoke 7.9%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Southampton vs Stoke?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 55.8% for Southampton vs Stoke.
Will there be a red card in Southampton vs Stoke?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 8.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Southampton vs Stoke?
Before kickoff, the model rated Stoke to pick up more cards at 52.7%, with a level count at 19.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.