QPR vs Bolton: model prediction
ChampionshipQPR or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was QPR at 52.7%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 52.9% and it missed (0 goals). We called Yes at 54.3% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"53% on QPR is a measurement, not a promise." On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes QPR heavy favourites at 53% when QPR meet Bolton in the Championship on 22 August 2026. Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 51%. No strong lean on goals (53% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. As a promoted side, Bolton carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The recent series reads 2 wins for QPR, 2 draws and 1 for Bolton over 5 games, 2.4 goals on average. Recent form reads W1 D1 L4 for QPR against W1 D0 L5 for Bolton. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.020 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
52.7%+2.0%
24.8%-0.4%
22.5%-1.6%
value_gap +0.020 <= 0.03
Goals markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: QPR 2 · 2 draws · Bolton 1 · 2.4 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 71.3% | Over 7.5 | 59.1% | Over 8.5 | 46.6% | Over 9.5 | 34.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: QPR | 53.8% | Most: Bolton | 33.7% | ||||
| QPR Over 4.2 | 48.3% | Bolton Over 4.2 | 33.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 71.4% | Over 3.5 | 50.6% | Over 4.5 | 31.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: QPR | 32.6% | Most: Bolton | 46.1% | ||
| QPR Over 1.8 | 50.0% | Bolton Over 1.8 | 59.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| QPR clean sheet | 34.4% |
|---|---|
| Bolton clean sheet | 17.6% |
| QPR win to nil | 27.7% |
| Bolton win to nil | 10.9% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 52.7% | draw | 24.8% | away | 22.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 77.5% | 12 | 75.2% | X2 | 47.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 70.1% | away | 29.9% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 54.3% | no | 45.7% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 34.7% | away | 17.6% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 28.0% | away | 11.0% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 23.3% | home_by_2 | 16.3% | home_by_3plus | 13.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 14.0% | away_by_2 | 6.1% | away_by_3plus | 2.5% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 6.7% | 0-1 | 5.9% | 0-2 | 3.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.2% | 0-4 | 0.3% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.1% | 1-1 | 11.8% | 1-2 | 5.9% |
| 1-3 | 2.1% | 1-4 | 0.6% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 9.2% | 2-1 | 9.8% | 2-2 | 5.2% |
| 2-3 | 1.8% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 5.3% | 3-1 | 5.6% | 3-2 | 3.0% |
| 3-3 | 1.1% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 2.3% | 4-1 | 2.5% | 4-2 | 1.3% |
| 4-3 | 0.5% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.8% | 5-1 | 0.9% | 5-2 | 0.4% |
| 5-3 | 0.2% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.0% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 11.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.3% | under_0.5 | 6.7% | over_1.5 | 77.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 22.7% | over_2.5 | 52.9% | under_2.5 | 47.1% |
| over_3.5 | 30.7% | under_3.5 | 69.3% | over_4.5 | 15.1% |
| under_4.5 | 84.9% | over_5.5 | 6.5% | under_5.5 | 93.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.7% | even | 51.3% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 82.4% | under_0.5 | 17.6% | over_1.5 | 51.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 48.2% | over_2.5 | 25.2% | under_2.5 | 74.8% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 65.3% | under_0.5 | 34.7% | over_1.5 | 28.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 71.4% | over_2.5 | 9.1% | under_2.5 | 90.9% |
most
| home | 52.7% | draw | 24.8% | away | 22.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 13.1% | away_+2.5 | 86.9% | home_-1.5 | 29.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 70.6% | home_-0.5 | 52.7% | away_+0.5 | 47.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 77.5% | away_-0.5 | 22.5% | home_+1.5 | 91.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 8.5% | home_+2.5 | 97.6% | away_-2.5 | 2.5% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 6.7% | exact_1 | 16.0% | exact_2 | 24.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.2% | exact_4 | 15.5% | exact_5 | 8.7% |
| exact_6 | 4.0% | exact_7plus | 2.4% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 23.1% | draw | 36.2% | away | 40.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 77.5% | under_0.5 | 22.5% | over_1.5 | 44.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 56.0% | over_2.5 | 18.9% | under_2.5 | 81.1% |
btts
| yes | 26.6% | no | 73.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 22.5% | exact_1 | 33.6% | exact_2 | 25.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 12.5% | exact_4plus | 6.5% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 37.2% | draw | 38.3% | away | 24.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 74.8% | under_0.5 | 25.2% | over_1.5 | 40.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.0% | over_2.5 | 16.1% | under_2.5 | 83.9% |
btts
| yes | 24.2% | no | 75.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 18.6% | H/D | 3.4% | H/A | 1.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 13.5% | D/D | 13.9% | D/A | 8.8% |
| A/H | 3.5% | A/D | 7.6% | A/A | 29.6% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 77.9% | under_7.5 | 22.1% | over_8.5 | 67.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 32.7% | over_9.5 | 55.7% | under_9.5 | 44.3% |
| over_10.5 | 44.0% | under_10.5 | 56.0% | over_11.5 | 33.1% |
| under_11.5 | 66.9% | over_12.5 | 23.8% | under_12.5 | 76.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 78.1% | under_3.5 | 21.9% | over_4.5 | 63.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 36.1% | over_5.5 | 48.9% | under_5.5 | 51.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 63.1% | under_3.5 | 36.9% | over_4.5 | 46.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 54.1% | over_5.5 | 30.8% | under_5.5 | 69.2% |
most
| home | 56.9% | draw | 10.3% | away | 32.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.4% | away_+3.5 | 73.6% | home_-1.5 | 46.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 53.9% | home_-0.5 | 56.9% | away_+0.5 | 43.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.2% | away_-0.5 | 32.8% | home_+1.5 | 76.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.7% | home_+3.5 | 89.5% | away_-3.5 | 10.5% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 61.5% | under_22.5 | 38.6% | over_24.5 | 48.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 51.1% | over_26.5 | 36.8% | under_26.5 | 63.2% |
| over_28.5 | 26.1% | under_28.5 | 73.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 73.3% | under_10.5 | 26.7% | over_12.5 | 57.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 42.8% | over_14.5 | 40.8% | under_14.5 | 59.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 51.0% | under_10.5 | 49.0% | over_12.5 | 33.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 66.9% | over_14.5 | 19.3% | under_14.5 | 80.7% |
most
| home | 63.7% | draw | 5.8% | away | 30.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 38.6% | away_+4.5 | 61.4% | home_-2.5 | 51.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 48.8% | home_-0.5 | 63.7% | away_+0.5 | 36.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 69.5% | away_-0.5 | 30.5% | home_+2.5 | 79.7% |
| away_-2.5 | 20.3% | home_+4.5 | 87.5% | away_-4.5 | 12.5% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 71.3% | under_6.5 | 28.7% | over_7.5 | 59.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 40.9% | over_8.5 | 46.6% | under_8.5 | 53.4% |
| over_9.5 | 34.9% | under_9.5 | 65.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 65.4% | under_3.5 | 34.7% | over_4.5 | 48.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.7% | over_5.5 | 32.9% | under_5.5 | 67.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 51.5% | under_3.5 | 48.5% | over_4.5 | 33.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 66.2% | over_5.5 | 20.2% | under_5.5 | 79.8% |
most
| home | 53.8% | draw | 12.4% | away | 33.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 29.3% | away_+2.5 | 70.7% | home_-0.5 | 53.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 46.2% | home_+0.5 | 66.3% | away_-0.5 | 33.8% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.6% | away_-2.5 | 14.4% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 71.4% | under_2.5 | 28.6% | over_3.5 | 50.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 49.4% | over_4.5 | 31.3% | under_4.5 | 68.7% |
| over_5.5 | 17.0% | under_5.5 | 83.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 50.0% | under_1.5 | 50.0% | over_2.5 | 23.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 76.3% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 59.9% | under_1.5 | 40.1% | over_2.5 | 32.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 67.2% |
most
| home | 32.6% | draw | 21.3% | away | 46.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 16.0% | away_+1.5 | 84.0% | home_-0.5 | 32.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 67.4% | home_+0.5 | 53.9% | away_-0.5 | 46.1% |
| home_+1.5 | 73.8% | away_-1.5 | 26.2% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 56.6% | under_20.5 | 43.4% | over_22.5 | 40.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 59.2% | over_24.5 | 26.9% | under_24.5 | 73.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 60.6% | under_9.5 | 39.4% | over_11.5 | 38.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 61.8% | over_13.5 | 20.3% | under_13.5 | 79.7% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 63.1% | under_9.5 | 36.9% | over_11.5 | 40.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 59.1% | over_13.5 | 22.4% | under_13.5 | 77.6% |
most
| home | 44.1% | draw | 8.0% | away | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.6% | away_+3.5 | 77.4% | home_-0.5 | 44.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 55.9% | home_+2.5 | 67.5% | away_-2.5 | 32.5% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 6.3% | no | 93.7% |
|---|
home
| yes | 2.6% | no | 97.4% |
|---|
away
| yes | 3.8% | no | 96.2% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: QPR predictions · Bolton predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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