La Liga
Sevilla vs 
Ath Madrid Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-3. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 66.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 82.8% for over 2.5 to 31.3% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.1%. Between the two sides, Ath Madrid are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.9%, with a level count at 18.9%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 82.8% | 17.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 66.5% | 33.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 31.3% | 68.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
64.4%
38.2%
67.4%
41.7%
Card handicap
| Sevilla line | Sevilla | Ath Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22.0% | 78.0% |
| -0.5 | 38.2% | 61.8% |
| +0.5 | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| +1.5 | 74.3% | 25.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 73.5% | 26.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 60.2% | 39.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 46.1% | 53.9% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sevilla vs Ath Madrid. It tips Ath Madrid for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
66.5%Over 3.5 cards19.4%Any red card64.4%Sevilla over 1.5 cards67.4%Ath Madrid over 1.5 cards60.2%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Sevilla over 1.5 cards sits at 64.4% and Ath Madrid at 67.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 19.4% (Sevilla 8.1%, Ath Madrid 12.3%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Sevilla vs Ath Madrid?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 66.5% for Sevilla vs Ath Madrid.
Will there be a red card in Sevilla vs Ath Madrid?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 19.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sevilla vs Ath Madrid?
Before kickoff, the model rated Ath Madrid to pick up more cards at 42.9%, with a level count at 18.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.