La Liga
Ath Bilbao vs 
Elche Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 58.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 77.3% for over 2.5 to 23.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 58.5%. Between the two sides, Elche are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.1%, with a level count at 19.9%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 77.3% | 22.8% |
| 3.5 cards | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 23.8% | 76.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
56.8%
30.4%
63.7%
37.5%
Card handicap
| Ath Bilbao line | Ath Bilbao | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.8% | 81.2% |
| -0.5 | 35.1% | 65.0% |
| +0.5 | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| +1.5 | 73.4% | 26.6% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 80.0% | 20.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 68.3% | 31.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 55.0% | 45.0% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Ath Bilbao vs Elche. Slightly more cards are projected for Elche for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
58.5%Over 3.5 cards19.3%Any red card56.8%Ath Bilbao over 1.5 cards63.7%Elche over 1.5 cards68.3%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Ath Bilbao over 1.5 cards sits at 56.8% and Elche at 63.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 19.3% (Ath Bilbao 13.6%, Elche 6.6%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Ath Bilbao vs Elche?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 58.5% for Ath Bilbao vs Elche.
Will there be a red card in Ath Bilbao vs Elche?
The model rates a red card for either side at 19.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Ath Bilbao vs Elche?
The model rates Elche to pick up more cards at 45.1%, with a level count at 19.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.