La Liga
Osasuna vs 
Espanol Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 68.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 84.1% for over 2.5 to 33.5% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.4%. Head to head on cards, Espanol are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.7%, with a level count at 18.3%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 84.1% | 15.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 68.5% | 31.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 33.5% | 66.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
62.8%
36.5%
71.4%
46.6%
Card handicap
| Osasuna line | Osasuna | Espanol |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.0% | 81.0% |
| -0.5 | 34.0% | 66.0% |
| +0.5 | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| +1.5 | 70.0% | 30.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 81.4% | 18.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 70.2% | 29.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 57.2% | 42.8% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Osasuna vs Espanol. It tips Espanol for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
68.5%Over 3.5 cards17.5%Any red card62.8%Osasuna over 1.5 cards71.4%Espanol over 1.5 cards70.2%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Osasuna over 1.5 cards sits at 62.8% and Espanol at 71.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.5% (Osasuna 7.3%, Espanol 11.0%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Osasuna vs Espanol?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 68.5% for Osasuna vs Espanol.
Will there be a red card in Osasuna vs Espanol?
The model rates a red card for either side at 17.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Osasuna vs Espanol?
The model rates Espanol to pick up more cards at 47.7%, with a level count at 18.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.