La Liga
Santander vs 
Alaves Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Home or Away at 72.3%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Alaves are favoured at 40.9%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Santander by 1 | 18.5% |
| Santander by 2 | 9.3% |
| Santander by 3+ | 4.5% |
| Alaves by 1 | 21.1% |
| Alaves by 2 | 12.0% |
| Alaves by 3+ | 7.0% |
| Draw | 27.7% |
Goal handicap
| Santander line | Santander | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13.8% | 86.2% |
| -0.5 | 32.3% | 67.8% |
| +0.5 | 59.9% | 40.1% |
| +1.5 | 81.0% | 19.0% |
Double chance trades a slice of return for a wider safety net. The highest-probability cover is Santander or Alaves on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
53.1%Both Teams to Score
47.8%Over 2.5 goalsOn the result, Alaves are favoured at 40.9%. Game state shapes this market, a side chasing the game tends to commit more.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Santander vs Alaves?
Home or Away is the highest-probability double chance for Santander vs Alaves at 72.3%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Santander vs Alaves?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Santander at 44.6% and Alaves at 55.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 39,986 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.