Serie A
Roma vs 
Fiorentina Correct Score
Result
Final score 4-0. The model gave that exact scoreline 2.3%.
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 12.3% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. Recent output points the same way: Roma have averaged 2.6 scored and 0.4 conceded, Fiorentina 0.6 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 46.7% for over 2.5 and 72.7% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 1-0 | 12.2% |
| 2-0 | 10.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% |
| 0-0 | 8.5% |
| 0-1 | 6.7% |
| 3-0 | 5.6% |
| 1-2 | 5.4% |
Score probability grid
| Roma \ Fiorentina | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 7% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 12% | 12% | 5% | 2% | · | · |
| 2 | 10% | 10% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 3 | 6% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Roma goals, columns = Fiorentina. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.3%. No exact score is ever truly likely; the value is in the full distribution the model assigns. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
48.9%Both Teams to Score46.7%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 46.7% for three or more goals and 72.7% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Roma favoured at 55.6%, a competitive game tends to open up.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Roma 3 · 1 draws · Fiorentina 1 · 3.6 goals/game.
FAQ
What was the score in Roma vs Fiorentina?
Roma vs Fiorentina finished 4-0. The model's most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 12.3%; it gave the actual 4-0 a 2.3% chance.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Serie A, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.