Roma vs Fiorentina: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 24 Aug 2026

Serie A

Roma

WWWWW

Full time4-0Mon, 24 Aug 202619:45UK30°C · Clearing

Fiorentina

DLDWD

Model’s top convictions

81%

Roma or draw

73%

Over 1.5 goals

53%

Under 2.5 goals

Full time1 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Roma 4-0 Fiorentina

✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Both teams to score

2 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Roma at 55.6%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 53.3% and it missed (4 goals). We called No at 51.1% and it landed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

RomaWin probability

55.6%

Top 3 convictions

Roma or draw81.4%High probabilityPays @ 1.23

Over 1.5 goals72.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.38

Under 2.5 goals53.3%Good chancePays @ 1.88

Model read

▾

"Roma or Fiorentina? We publish probabilities, not certainties." On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Roma heavy favourites at 56% when Roma meet Fiorentina in the Serie A on 24 August 2026. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Roma higher (62%) than our model does. Totals sit close to the fence: 47% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 49%. Donyell Malen drives the home shot volume, 1.9 on target per 90. Form guide over the last six: Roma W5 D1 L0, Fiorentina W1 D4 L1. The forecast adds a wrinkle: 30 degrees of heat. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 3 wins for Roma, 1 draws and 1 for Fiorentina, averaging 3.6 goals a game. Verdict: no bet. Conservative ev -0.005 <= 0.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 8.5 corners47.9%@ 2.09

Over 2.5 goals46.7%@ 2.14

Draw or Fiorentina44.5%@ 2.25

Medium risk

Not both teams to score51.1%@ 1.96

Random finds

1-1 correct score12.3%@ 8.10

1-0 correct score12.2%@ 8.23

2-0 correct score10.3%@ 9.69

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Roma

55.6%-5.9%

Draw

25.9%+3.2%

Fiorentina

18.6%+2.8%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.005 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.572.7%

Strong chance

Over 2.546.7%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes48.9%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.547.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 9.538.2%

Toss-up

Over 10.529.6%

Low chance

Over 11.522.4%

Low chance

Most cornersRoma59.5%Fiorentina30.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.556.7%

Good chance

Over 24.544.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.533.2%

Toss-up

Over 28.523.3%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.572.7%2.546.7%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 1.572.7%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

RomaWWWWW

FiorentinaDLDWD

Last 5 meetings: Roma 3 · 1 draws · Fiorentina 1 · 3.6 goals/game.

2026-05-04Roma 4-0 Fiorentina

2025-10-05Fiorentina 1-2 Roma

2025-05-04Roma 1-0 Fiorentina

2024-10-27Fiorentina 5-1 Roma

2024-03-10Fiorentina 2-2 Roma

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Donyell MalenRoma · key player

To score54.0%

@ 1.85

1+ on target82.1%

@ 1.22

2+ shots90.0%

@ 1.11

Shots/90 4.2SoT/90 1.86Goals/90 0.84

Moise KeanFiorentina · key player

To score37.7%

@ 2.65

1+ on target73.6%

@ 1.36

2+ shots86.7%

@ 1.15

Shots/90 3.87SoT/90 1.46Goals/90 0.52

Evan FergusonRoma · in form

To score17.2%

@ 5.81

1+ on target58.3%

@ 1.72

2+ shots48.3%

@ 2.07

Shots/90 3.01SoT/90 1.62Goals/90 0.35

Roberto PiccoliFiorentina · in form

To score11.9%

@ 8.40

1+ on target39.3%

@ 2.54

2+ shots43.2%

@ 2.31

Shots/90 2.56SoT/90 0.87Goals/90 0.22

Paulo DybalaRoma · in form

To score16.3%

@ 6.13

1+ on target55.1%

@ 1.81

2+ shots60.6%

@ 1.65

Shots/90 2.99SoT/90 1.17Goals/90 0.26

Albert GudmundssonFiorentina · in form

To score17.7%

@ 5.65

1+ on target39.9%

@ 2.51

2+ shots33.4%

@ 2.99

Shots/90 1.71SoT/90 0.73Goals/90 0.28

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair

Roma win1.571.80

Draw4.103.87

Fiorentina win5.755.38

Over 2.5 goals1.882.14

Under 2.5 goals1.981.88

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Roma win1.88

Draw3.85

Fiorentina win4.79

Both teams to score2.04

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09

Over 1.5 goals1.38

Over 2.5 goals2.14

Over 3.5 goals3.97

Roma most1.88

Fiorentina most4.79

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.66

Over 8.5 corners2.05

Over 9.5 corners2.62

Over 10.5 corners3.48

Roma most1.68

Fiorentina most3.31

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.29

Over 3.5 cards1.71

Over 4.5 cards2.53

Over 5.5 cards4.21

Roma most3.23

Fiorentina most2.02

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.51

Over 7.5 SoT1.82

Over 8.5 SoT2.29

Over 9.5 SoT2.97

Roma most1.56

Fiorentina most3.94

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.76

Over 24.5 shots2.24

Over 26.5 shots3.01

Over 28.5 shots4.29

Roma most1.45

Fiorentina most3.90

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.19

Over 22.5 fouls1.35

Over 24.5 fouls1.60

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	66.3%	Over 7.5	54.9%	Over 8.5	43.7%	Over 9.5	33.6%
Most: Roma	64.0%	Most: Fiorentina	25.4%
Roma Over 4.2	52.5%	Fiorentina Over 4.2	24.4%

Cards

Over 2.5	77.3%	Over 3.5	58.5%	Over 4.5	39.5%
Most: Roma	31.0%	Most: Fiorentina	49.4%
Roma Over 1.8	53.6%	Fiorentina Over 1.8	66.4%

Roma: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Donyell Malen	4.2	1.86	0.84	82.1%	90.0%	54.0%
Evan Ferguson	3.01	1.62	0.35	58.3%	48.3%	17.2%
Paulo Dybala	2.99	1.17	0.26	55.1%	60.6%	16.3%
Eldor Shomurodov	2.41	1.08	0.33	38.2%	29.1%	13.7%
Artem Dovbyk	2.38	1.06	0.49	51.0%	47.6%	28.1%

Fiorentina: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Moise Kean	3.87	1.46	0.52	73.6%	86.7%	37.7%
Roberto Piccoli	2.56	0.87	0.22	39.3%	43.2%	11.9%
Albert Gudmundsson	1.71	0.73	0.28	39.9%	33.4%	17.7%
Riccardo Sottil	2.44	0.66	0.11	29.6%	37.2%	5.7%
Rolando Mandragora	2.06	0.64	0.23	39.2%	47.5%	16.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Roma clean sheet	39.5%
Fiorentina clean sheet	19.8%
Roma win to nil	31.0%
Fiorentina win to nil	11.3%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	53.1%	draw	26.0%	away	20.9%

double_chance

1X	79.1%	12	74.0%	X2	46.9%

dnb

home	71.8%	away	28.2%

btts

yes	48.9%	no	51.1%

clean_sheet

home	39.8%	away	19.8%

win_to_nil

home	31.3%	away	11.4%

winning_margin

home_by_1	24.3%	home_by_2	16.5%	home_by_3plus	12.3%
away_by_1	13.6%	away_by_2	5.4%	away_by_3plus	1.9%

correct_score

0-0	8.5%	0-1	6.7%	0-2	3.4%
0-3	1.0%	0-4	0.2%	0-5	0.0%
1-0	12.2%	1-1	12.3%	1-2	5.4%
1-3	1.7%	1-4	0.4%	1-5	0.1%
2-0	10.3%	2-1	9.5%	2-2	4.4%
2-3	1.4%	2-4	0.3%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	5.6%	3-1	5.1%	3-2	2.4%
3-3	0.7%	3-4	0.2%	3-5	0.0%
4-0	2.3%	4-1	2.1%	4-2	1.0%
4-3	0.3%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.7%	5-1	0.7%	5-2	0.3%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.7%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	12.3%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	91.5%	under_0.5	8.5%	over_1.5	72.7%
under_1.5	27.3%	over_2.5	46.7%	under_2.5	53.3%
over_3.5	25.2%	under_3.5	74.8%	over_4.5	11.5%
under_4.5	88.5%	over_5.5	4.5%	under_5.5	95.5%

odd_even

odd	48.5%	even	51.5%

team_home

over_0.5	80.2%	under_0.5	19.8%	over_1.5	48.1%
under_1.5	51.9%	over_2.5	22.2%	under_2.5	77.8%

team_away

over_0.5	60.3%	under_0.5	39.8%	over_1.5	23.6%
under_1.5	76.4%	over_2.5	6.7%	under_2.5	93.3%

most

home	53.1%	draw	26.0%	away	20.9%

handicap

home_-2.5	12.3%	away_+2.5	87.7%	home_-1.5	28.8%
away_+1.5	71.2%	home_-0.5	53.1%	away_+0.5	46.9%
home_+0.5	79.1%	away_-0.5	20.9%	home_+1.5	92.8%
away_-1.5	7.2%	home_+2.5	98.1%	away_-2.5	1.9%

total_exact

exact_0	8.5%	exact_1	18.8%	exact_2	26.0%
exact_3	21.6%	exact_4	13.7%	exact_5	7.0%
exact_6	2.9%	exact_7plus	1.5%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	39.4%	draw	44.4%	away	16.2%

total

over_0.5	64.5%	under_0.5	35.5%	over_1.5	27.7%
under_1.5	72.3%	over_2.5	8.7%	under_2.5	91.3%

btts

yes	14.5%	no	85.5%

total_exact

exact_0	35.5%	exact_1	36.8%	exact_2	19.0%
exact_3	6.6%	exact_4plus	2.1%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	44.0%	draw	36.1%	away	19.9%

total

over_0.5	76.7%	under_0.5	23.3%	over_1.5	42.8%
under_1.5	57.2%	over_2.5	18.1%	under_2.5	81.9%

btts

yes	24.8%	no	75.2%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	33.4%	H/D	4.6%	H/A	1.3%
D/H	19.5%	D/D	16.1%	D/A	8.8%
A/H	2.4%	A/D	4.0%	A/A	9.8%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	60.2%	under_7.5	39.8%	over_8.5	48.9%
under_8.5	51.1%	over_9.5	38.2%	under_9.5	61.8%
over_10.5	28.7%	under_10.5	71.3%	over_11.5	20.9%
under_11.5	79.1%	over_12.5	14.7%	under_12.5	85.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	67.5%	under_3.5	32.5%	over_4.5	53.2%
under_4.5	46.8%	over_5.5	39.8%	under_5.5	60.2%

team_away

over_3.5	46.1%	under_3.5	53.9%	over_4.5	30.9%
under_4.5	69.1%	over_5.5	19.4%	under_5.5	80.6%

most

home	59.7%	draw	10.1%	away	30.2%

handicap

home_-3.5	29.0%	away_+3.5	71.0%	home_-1.5	48.9%
away_+1.5	51.1%	home_-0.5	59.7%	away_+0.5	40.4%
home_+0.5	69.8%	away_-0.5	30.2%	home_+1.5	78.5%
away_-1.5	21.5%	home_+3.5	90.7%	away_-3.5	9.3%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	56.7%	under_22.5	43.3%	over_24.5	44.6%
under_24.5	55.5%	over_26.5	33.2%	under_26.5	66.8%
over_28.5	23.3%	under_28.5	76.7%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	73.1%	under_10.5	26.9%	over_12.5	57.9%
under_12.5	42.1%	over_14.5	42.4%	under_14.5	57.6%

team_away

over_10.5	42.4%	under_10.5	57.6%	over_12.5	26.2%
under_12.5	73.8%	over_14.5	14.7%	under_14.5	85.3%

most

home	69.1%	draw	5.3%	away	25.6%

handicap

home_-4.5	45.0%	away_+4.5	55.0%	home_-2.5	57.4%
away_+2.5	42.6%	home_-0.5	69.1%	away_+0.5	30.9%
home_+0.5	74.4%	away_-0.5	25.6%	home_+2.5	83.3%
away_-2.5	16.7%	home_+4.5	90.0%	away_-4.5	10.1%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	66.3%	under_6.5	33.7%	over_7.5	54.9%
under_7.5	45.1%	over_8.5	43.8%	under_8.5	56.3%
over_9.5	33.6%	under_9.5	66.4%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	67.1%	under_3.5	32.9%	over_4.5	52.5%
under_4.5	47.5%	over_5.5	39.0%	under_5.5	61.0%

team_away

over_3.5	39.3%	under_3.5	60.7%	over_4.5	24.4%
under_4.5	75.6%	over_5.5	14.2%	under_5.5	85.8%

most

home	64.0%	draw	10.6%	away	25.4%

handicap

home_-2.5	40.8%	away_+2.5	59.2%	home_-0.5	64.0%
away_+0.5	36.0%	home_+0.5	74.6%	away_-0.5	25.4%
home_+2.5	89.7%	away_-2.5	10.3%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	77.3%	under_2.5	22.7%	over_3.5	58.5%
under_3.5	41.5%	over_4.5	39.5%	under_4.5	60.6%
over_5.5	23.7%	under_5.5	76.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	53.6%	under_1.5	46.4%	over_2.5	27.3%
under_2.5	72.7%

team_away

over_1.5	66.4%	under_1.5	33.6%	over_2.5	40.5%
under_2.5	59.5%

most

home	31.0%	draw	19.6%	away	49.4%

handicap

home_-1.5	15.9%	away_+1.5	84.1%	home_-0.5	31.0%
away_+0.5	69.0%	home_+0.5	50.6%	away_-0.5	49.4%
home_+1.5	69.7%	away_-1.5	30.3%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	84.1%	under_20.5	15.9%	over_22.5	74.2%
under_22.5	25.8%	over_24.5	62.4%	under_24.5	37.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	82.0%	under_9.5	18.0%	over_11.5	66.5%
under_11.5	33.5%	over_13.5	48.7%	under_13.5	51.3%

team_away

over_9.5	78.7%	under_9.5	21.3%	over_11.5	61.9%
under_11.5	38.2%	over_13.5	43.7%	under_13.5	56.3%

most

home	50.3%	draw	6.4%	away	43.3%

handicap

home_-3.5	31.6%	away_+3.5	68.4%	home_-0.5	50.3%
away_+0.5	49.7%	home_+2.5	68.9%	away_-2.5	31.1%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	20.2%	no	79.8%

home

yes	8.8%	no	91.3%

away

yes	12.5%	no	87.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Roma predictions · Fiorentina predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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