Serie A
Roma vs 
Fiorentina Cards
Result
Settled, final score 4-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 58.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 77.3% for over 2.5 to 23.7% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 58.5%. On the card count, Fiorentina are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.4%, with a level count at 19.6%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 77.3% | 22.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 39.5% | 60.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 23.7% | 76.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
53.6%
27.3%
66.4%
40.5%
Card handicap
| Roma line | Roma | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.9% | 84.1% |
| -0.5 | 31.0% | 69.0% |
| +0.5 | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| +1.5 | 69.7% | 30.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 84.1% | 15.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 74.2% | 25.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 62.4% | 37.6% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Roma vs Fiorentina. The model leans toward Fiorentina for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
58.5%Over 3.5 cards20.2%Any red card53.6%Roma over 1.5 cards66.4%Fiorentina over 1.5 cards74.2%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Roma over 1.5 cards sits at 53.6% and Fiorentina at 66.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 20.2% (Roma 8.8%, Fiorentina 12.5%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Roma vs Fiorentina?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 58.5% for Roma vs Fiorentina.
Will there be a red card in Roma vs Fiorentina?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 20.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Roma vs Fiorentina?
Before kickoff, the model rated Fiorentina to pick up more cards at 49.4%, with a level count at 19.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Serie A, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.