Serie A
Roma vs 
Fiorentina Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 58.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. On the result, Roma are favoured at 55.6%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Roma vs Fiorentina. The model leans toward Fiorentina for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Reading the match, Roma are favoured at 55.6%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Roma to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Roma 3 · 1 draws · Fiorentina 1 · 3.6 goals/game.
FAQ
How many cards in Roma vs Fiorentina?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 58.5% for Roma vs Fiorentina.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Cards-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Serie A, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.