Rodez 0-3 Montpellier shots: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Rodez0-3Montpellier
| This match | Rodez | Montpellier | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 17 | 20 | 37 |
| Shots on target | 2 | 9 | 11 |
| 1st-half shots | 8 | 9 | 17 |
| 2nd-half shots | 9 | 11 | 20 |
| 1st-half on target | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 2nd-half on target | 1 | 7 | 8 |
We called Under 24.5 at 56.3% and it missed (37 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 57.8% and it landed (11 in the match).
Model read
Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Lean
Over 24.5 shots43.7%
Shots prediction
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Rodez.
Total shots
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| 24.5 shots | 43.7% | 56.3% |
| 26.5 shots | 31.8% | 68.2% |
| 28.5 shots | 21.8% | 78.3% |
Who takes more shots
RodezMontpellierTeam shots lines
Rodez
Montpellier
Shots on target
Model probabilities for shots on target, both teams combined in the ladder and per team below. A shot on target is one the goalkeeper has to deal with, or a goal.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 70.1% | 29.9% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 57.8% | 42.2% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 33.8% | 66.2% |
Who has more on target
RodezMontpellierTeam shots on target lines
Rodez
Montpellier
Shot handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Rodez's; Montpellier gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Rodez line | Rodez | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 37.3% | 62.7% |
| -2.5 | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| -0.5 | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| +0.5 | 69.2% | 30.8% |
Shots stats
Recorded results from league matches, not predictions. A missing value is shown as a dot, never as zero.
This season: average per game in this season's league matches. A value appears only after five matches with shot data; Matches shows how many there were. More shots is the share of matches in which the team took more shots than its opponent.
At home and away: Rodez in their home matches and Montpellier in their away matches this season, the venue each side plays at in this match. A split appears after three matches at that venue.
By half: shots before and after the break, per game. In the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 the half split comes from Understat and is used only when the shots before the break match the half-time score; elsewhere it comes from the data provider's half-by-half statistics and is used only when both halves add up to the full-time count. Shots on target per half come from the data provider. The halves can therefore have fewer matches, shown in brackets, than the full-match averages.
Last six league matches: the most recent six league matches with shot data, which can include last season. Shown only with at least five matches.
Recorded 2026/27
This season
Rodez at home, Montpellier away
By half, this season
No verified half-by-half shot data for these teams this season yet.
Last six league matches
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 17,005 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.3% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 43.7%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 56.6% for over 22.5 to 21.8% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.7%. Between the two sides, Rodez are the model’s pick to have more shots at 63.1%, with a level count at 6.0%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.
In-depth analysis
By team, Rodez over 12.5 shots sits at 53.2% and Montpellier at 30.0%. This season Rodez have averaged 14.8 shots a game and Montpellier 13.8.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Rodez vs Montpellier?
Which team will have more shots in Rodez vs Montpellier?
How many shots do Montpellier take away from home?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Ligue 2, Shots
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
