Ligue 2Rodez vs Grenoble Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 49.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 70.4% for over 2.5 to 16.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.3%. On the card count, Grenoble are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.0%, with a level count at 21.6%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 70.4% | 29.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| 4.5 cards | 30.1% | 69.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.1% | 83.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
50.0%
23.7%
58.4%
31.3%
Card handicap
| Rodez line | Rodez | Grenoble |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.5% | 83.5% |
| -0.5 | 33.5% | 66.6% |
| +0.5 | 55.1% | 45.0% |
| +1.5 | 74.9% | 25.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 83.1% | 16.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 71.7% | 28.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 58.1% | 41.9% |
This season (2026/27)
1.4Rodez cards per game15.0Rodez fouls per game2.4Grenoble cards per game13.4Grenoble fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Rodez vs Grenoble. The model leans toward Grenoble for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
49.3%Over 3.5 cards18.3%Any red card50.0%Rodez over 1.5 cards58.4%Grenoble over 1.5 cards71.7%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Rodez over 1.5 cards sits at 50.0% and Grenoble at 58.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.3% (Rodez 3.9%, Grenoble 15.0%). This season Rodez have averaged 1.4 cards a game and Grenoble 2.4.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Rodez vs Grenoble?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 49.3% for Rodez vs Grenoble.
Will there be a red card in Rodez vs Grenoble?
The model rates a red card for either side at 18.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Rodez vs Grenoble?
The model rates Grenoble to pick up more cards at 45.0%, with a level count at 21.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 2, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.