Ligue 2Dunkerque vs 
St Etienne Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 49.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 70.8% for over 2.5 to 16.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.8%. Between the two sides, Dunkerque are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.4%, with a level count at 21.7%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 70.8% | 29.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 30.6% | 69.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.5% | 83.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
55.6%
28.6%
53.7%
27.0%
Card handicap
| Dunkerque line | Dunkerque | St Etienne |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.7% | 78.4% |
| -0.5 | 40.4% | 59.6% |
| +0.5 | 62.1% | 37.9% |
| +1.5 | 80.3% | 19.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 88.5% | 11.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 79.5% | 20.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 67.5% | 32.5% |
This season (2026/27)
2.6Dunkerque cards per game15.0Dunkerque fouls per game1.0St Etienne cards per game14.2St Etienne fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Dunkerque vs St Etienne. The model leans toward Dunkerque for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
49.8%Over 3.5 cards16.4%Any red card55.6%Dunkerque over 1.5 cards53.7%St Etienne over 1.5 cards79.5%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Dunkerque over 1.5 cards sits at 55.6% and St Etienne at 53.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.4% (Dunkerque 7.0%, St Etienne 10.1%). This season Dunkerque have averaged 2.6 cards a game and St Etienne 1.0.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Dunkerque vs St Etienne?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 49.8% for Dunkerque vs St Etienne.
Will there be a red card in Dunkerque vs St Etienne?
The model rates a red card for either side at 16.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Dunkerque vs St Etienne?
The model rates Dunkerque to pick up more cards at 40.4%, with a level count at 21.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 2, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.