Primeira Liga
Rio Ave vs 
Porto Cards
Result
Settled, final score 0-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 73.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 87.3% for over 2.5 to 38.0% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.6%. Head to head on cards, Rio Ave are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.5%, with a level count at 18.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 87.3% | 12.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 73.2% | 26.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 55.6% | 44.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 38.0% | 62.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
74.8%
50.1%
66.9%
40.3%
Card handicap
| Rio Ave line | Rio Ave | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| -0.5 | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| +0.5 | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| +1.5 | 80.7% | 19.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 84.3% | 15.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 74.4% | 25.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 62.4% | 37.6% |
This season (2026/27)
4.0Rio Ave cards per game9.0Rio Ave fouls per game0.0Porto cards per game13.0Porto fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Rio Ave vs Porto. It tips Rio Ave for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
73.2%Over 3.5 cards22.4%Any red card74.8%Rio Ave over 1.5 cards66.9%Porto over 1.5 cards74.4%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Rio Ave over 1.5 cards sits at 74.8% and Porto at 66.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 22.4% (Rio Ave 17.5%, Porto 6.0%). This season Rio Ave have averaged 4.0 cards a game and Porto 0.0.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Rio Ave vs Porto?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 73.2% for Rio Ave vs Porto.
Will there be a red card in Rio Ave vs Porto?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 22.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Rio Ave vs Porto?
Before kickoff, the model rated Rio Ave to pick up more cards at 47.5%, with a level count at 18.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.