Primeira Liga
Rio Ave vs 
Porto Shots
Result
Settled, final score 0-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 46.4%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 58.5% for over 22.5 to 25.1% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.4%. On the shot count, Rio Ave are the model’s pick to have more shots at 48.7%, with a level count at 6.1%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| 24.5 shots | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| 26.5 shots | 35.0% | 65.0% |
| 28.5 shots | 25.1% | 74.9% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
61.8%
44.9%
29.9%
59.5%
42.4%
27.7%
Shot handicap
| Rio Ave line | Rio Ave | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 36.7% | 63.3% |
| -0.5 | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| +0.5 | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| +2.5 | 66.6% | 33.4% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 69.9% | 30.1% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 44.4% | 55.6% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 32.7% | 67.3% |
This season (2026/27)
6.0Rio Ave shots per game10.0Porto shots per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Rio Ave.
In-depth analysis
46.4%Over 24.5 shots44.9%Rio Ave over 12.5 shots42.4%Porto over 12.5 shots57.2%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Rio Ave over 12.5 shots sits at 44.9% and Porto at 42.4%. This season Rio Ave have averaged 6.0 shots a game and Porto 10.0.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Rio Ave vs Porto?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 46.4% for Rio Ave vs Porto.
Which team will have more shots in Rio Ave vs Porto?
Before kickoff, the model rated Rio Ave to take more shots at 48.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.