Primeira Liga
Rio Ave vs 
Estrela Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 45.1%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 57.2% for over 22.5 to 24.0% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.1%. Head to head on shots, Rio Ave are the model’s pick to have more shots at 57.5%, with a level count at 6.0%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| 24.5 shots | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| 26.5 shots | 33.8% | 66.2% |
| 28.5 shots | 24.0% | 76.0% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
66.6%
50.2%
34.8%
52.2%
35.1%
21.6%
Shot handicap
| Rio Ave line | Rio Ave | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 33.4% | 66.6% |
| -2.5 | 45.2% | 54.8% |
| -0.5 | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| +0.5 | 63.5% | 36.5% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 70.3% | 29.7% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 33.0% | 67.0% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
6.6Rio Ave shots per game15.0Rio Ave shots faced per game11.2Estrela shots per game12.4Estrela shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Rio Ave.
In-depth analysis
45.1%Over 24.5 shots50.2%Rio Ave over 12.5 shots35.1%Estrela over 12.5 shots57.6%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Rio Ave over 12.5 shots sits at 50.2% and Estrela at 35.1%. This season Rio Ave have averaged 6.6 shots a game and Estrela 11.2.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Rio Ave vs Estrela?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 45.1% for Rio Ave vs Estrela.
Which team will have more shots in Rio Ave vs Estrela?
The model rates Rio Ave to take more shots at 57.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.