Ligue 1
Rennes vs 
Le Mans Shots
Result
We called Over 24.5 at 51.9% and it landed (34 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 63.6% and it landed (13 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 51.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 64.4% for over 22.5 to 28.6% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.9%. Between the two sides, Rennes are the model’s pick to have more shots at 60.6%, with a level count at 6.0%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 64.4% | 35.6% |
| 24.5 shots | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| 26.5 shots | 39.7% | 60.4% |
| 28.5 shots | 28.6% | 71.4% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
73.4%
57.1%
40.6%
55.8%
37.6%
22.7%
Shot handicap
| Rennes line | Rennes | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 35.6% | 64.4% |
| -2.5 | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| -0.5 | 60.6% | 39.5% |
| +0.5 | 66.5% | 33.5% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 75.2% | 24.8% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 39.3% | 60.7% |
Shot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Rennes.
In-depth analysis
51.9%Over 24.5 shots57.1%Rennes over 12.5 shots37.6%Le Mans over 12.5 shots63.6%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Rennes over 12.5 shots sits at 57.1% and Le Mans at 37.6%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Rennes vs Le Mans?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 51.9% for Rennes vs Le Mans.
Which team will have more shots in Rennes vs Le Mans?
Before kickoff, the model rated Rennes to take more shots at 60.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.